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Infectious disease and economic growth: the case of tuberculosis

Listed author(s):
  • Doriana Delfino
  • Peter J. Simmons

We consider the links between the health structure of the population and The productive system of an economy which is subject to infectious disease, in particular tuberculosis. Reviewing the models of tuberculosis suggests that a Lotka-Volterra system can capture the dynamics of epidemics. We combine this with a Solow-Swan growth model: output is produced from capital and healthy labour; the demographic parameters of the Lotka-Volterra system are functions of the capital labour ratio. We find three stationary states, two of which are extensions of population equilibria and the third of which has a positive capital labour ratio. there is also a partial balanced growth path in which there is no disease and the healthy population and capital stock grow at a common rate. We find conditions for stability of this path. We analyse the local dynamics and, in the context of global analysis of two examples, find that the economic-epidemiological stationary state is locally stable and an attractor for a wide range of initial conditions. The way in which the net birth rate of susceptibles responds to prosperity determines the level of the stationary state prevalence of the disease. The interaction between the disease and the economy can also decrease the amplitude of epidemic cycles.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 99/23.

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Date of creation:
Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:99/23
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Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom

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  1. Ettner, Susan L., 1996. "New evidence on the relationship between income and health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 67-85, February.
  2. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis, 1997. "The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 205-242, January.
  3. Robert J. Waldmann, 1992. "Income Distribution and Infant Mortality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1283-1302.
  4. Mutatkar, R. K., 1995. "Public health problems of urbanization," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 977-981, October.
  5. Bartel, Ann & Taubman, Paul, 1979. "Health and Labor Market Success: The Role of Various Diseases," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(1), pages 1-8, February.
  6. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1982. "Health and Wage: A Simultaneous Equation Model with Multiple Discrete Indicators," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(1), pages 199-221, February.
  7. Luft, Harold S, 1975. "The Impact of Poor Health on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(1), pages 43-57, February.
  8. Barnhoorn, Florie & Adriaanse, Hans, 1992. "In search of factors responsible for noncompliance among tuberculosis patients in Wardha District, India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 291-306, February.
  9. Dasgupta, Partha, 1997. "Nutritional status, the capacity for work, and poverty traps," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 5-37, March.
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