Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung
Expectations about the outcome of elections play an important role in both rational choice and social psychological theories of voting. So far, however, there is not much research on the formation of expectations and their influence on voting behavior. In this paper, we use election studies from Belgium, Austria, and Germany to address several questions about the formation and effects of expectations. First, we investigate the quality of the overall expectations and identify several factors that systematically influence the formation of expectations. In a second step, we turn to individual expectations for parties and coalitions and find a moderate bias in favor of preferred parties and coalitions. We show that the effect of wishful thinking decreases with higher levels of political knowledge and education. Finally, we test two different mechanisms how expectations can affect voting behavior, the rational decision of strategic coalition voting to avoid casting a wasted vote and the social psychological bandwagon effect. Both effects are supported and political knowledge appears to be a crucial moderator between these two mechanisms.
|Date of creation:||30 Jan 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.|
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- Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Skalaban, Andrew, 1989. "Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 146-153, January.
- Valentino Larcinese, 2007. "The Instrumental Voter Goes To the Newsagent," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 19(3), pages 249-276, July.
- Meffert, Michael F. & Gschwend, Thomas, 2007. "Strategic voting under proportional representation and coalition governments : a simulation and laboratory experiment," Papers 07-55, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Gschwend, Thomas, 2004. "Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-06, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Valentino Larcinese, 2003. "The Instrumental Voter Goes to the News-Agent: Demand for Information, Election Closeness, and the Media," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 579.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Meffert, Michael F. & Gschwend, Thomas, 2007. "Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation and Coalition Governments: A Simulation and Laboratory Experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-55, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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