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Expectations and Preferences in Presidential Nominating Campaigns

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  • Bartels, Larry M.

Abstract

Survey data from the preconvention waves of the 1980 National Election Study are used to estimate the effect of expectations about who will be nominated on respondents' own preferences. The results confirm the conventional belief that bandwagons play an important role in nominating campaigns; at the same time, they suggest that the dynamics of the nominating process may be more subtle than simple bandwagon models would indicate. First, preferences are strongly and consistently projected onto expectations, making the relationship of central interest a reciprocal one. Second, the bases of candidate choice appear to change systematically with political circumstances. In close, volatile campaigns, support for bandwagon candidates (like George Bush in early 1980) is based largely on favorable expectations and on relatively general, diffuse political evaluations (e.g., “leadership†). By comparison, when expectations about the nomination are very one-sided, their impact on preferences approaches zero, and more specific, substantive political evaluations become increasingly important.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartels, Larry M., 1985. "Expectations and Preferences in Presidential Nominating Campaigns," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(3), pages 804-815, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:79:y:1985:i:03:p:804-815_22
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    Cited by:

    1. Gar Culbert, 2015. "Realizing “strategic†voting in presidential primaries," Rationality and Society, , vol. 27(2), pages 224-256, May.
    2. Woojin Lee, 2008. "Bandwagon, underdog, and political competition: The uni-dimensional case," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2008-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2008.
    3. Meffert, Michael F. & Gschwend, Thomas, 2007. "Voting for Coalitions? The Role of Coalition Preferences and Expectations in Voting Behavior," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-64, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. D. Hillygus & Sarah Treul, 2014. "Assessing strategic voting in the 2008 US presidential primaries: the role of electoral context, institutional rules, and negative votes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 517-536, December.
    5. George Deltas & Mattias K. Polborn, 2019. "Candidate competition and voter learning in the 2000–2012 US presidential primaries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 115-151, January.
    6. Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2004. "Voting when money and morals conflict: an experimental test of expressive voting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1645-1664, July.
    7. Guiyang Xiong & Sundar Bharadwaj, 2014. "Prerelease Buzz Evolution Patterns and New Product Performance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 401-421, May.
    8. Xiong, Hang & Payne, Diane & Kinsella, Stephen, 2016. "Peer effects in the diffusion of innovations: Theory and simulation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Patrick Hummel & Brian Knight, 2015. "Sequential Or Simultaneous Elections? A Welfare Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(3), pages 851-887, August.
    10. Damien Bol & André Blais & Jean-François Laslier, 2018. "A mixed-utility theory of vote choice regret," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 461-478, September.
    11. Hummel, Patrick, 2012. "Sequential voting in large elections with multiple candidates," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 341-348.
    12. Meffert, Michael F. & Gschwend, Thomas, 2007. "Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-63, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    13. Hummel, Patrick & Holden, Richard, 2014. "Optimal primaries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 64-75.
    14. Riako Granzier & Vincent Pons & Clémence Tricaud, 2019. "Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates," NBER Working Papers 26599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Alexandra L. Cooper, 2002. "The Effective Length of the Presidential Primary Season," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 14(1), pages 71-92, January.
    16. Somdeep Chatterjee & Jai Kamal, 2021. "Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 431-453, September.
    17. Matias A. Bargsted & Orit Kedar, 2009. "Coalition‐Targeted Duvergerian Voting: How Expectations Affect Voter Choice under Proportional Representation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 307-323, April.
    18. Isabel Musse & Rodrigo Schneider, 2023. "The effect of presidential election outcomes on alcohol drinking," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 146-162, March.
    19. Huber, Sascha & Gschwend, Thomas & Meffert, Michael F. & Pappi, Franz Urban, 2008. "Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung," Papers 08-01, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    20. Callander, Steven, 2008. "Majority rule when voters like to win," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 393-420, November.

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