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Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance


  • Guglielmo D’Amico

    () (Dipartimento di Scienze del Farmaco, Università G. D’Annunzio of Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy)

  • Montserrat Guillen

    () (Departament d’Econometria, Estadistica I Economia Espanyola, RFA-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain)

  • Raimondo Manca

    () (Dipartimento di Metodi e Modelli per l’Economia, il Territorio e la Finanza, Università La Sapienza di Roma, Roma, Italy)


In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

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  • Guglielmo D’Amico & Montserrat Guillen & Raimondo Manca, 2012. "Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance," Working Papers XREAP2012-05, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Mar 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2012-05

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel, 2008. "Tourism and urban transport: Holding demand pressure under supply constraints," Working Papers XREAP2008-14, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2008.
    2. Laia Castany & Enrique Lopez-Bazo & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Decomposing differences in total factor productivity across firm size," IREA Working Papers 200705, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2007.
    3. Xosé-Luís Varela-Irimia, 2014. "Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990s," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 419-455, November.
    4. Marta Arespa, 2011. "Macroeconomics of extensive margins: a simple model," Working Papers XREAP2011-19, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Nov 2011.
    5. Anna Matas & Josep Lluís Raymond, 2006. "Economic development and changes in car ownership patterns," Working Papers CREAP2006-01, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2006.
    6. Marta Arespa, 2011. "A New Open Economy Macroeconomic Model with Endogenous Portfolio Diversifi cation and Firms Entry," Working Papers XREAP2011-15, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Oct 2011.
    7. D'Amico, Guglielmo & Guillen, Montserrat & Manca, Raimondo, 2009. "Full backward non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes for disability insurance models: A Catalunya real data application," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 173-179, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Manresa & Ferran Sancho, 2012. "Leontief versus Ghosh: two faces of the same coin," Working Papers XREAP2012-18, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Oct 2012.

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