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Economic development and changes in car ownership patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Matas

    () (Grup d'Anàlisi Econòmica Aplicada (GEAP), Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

  • Josep Lluís Raymond

    () (Grup d'Anàlisi Econòmica Aplicada (GEAP), Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

Abstract

The contributions of this paper are twofold: On the one hand, the paper analyses the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last two decades, and, on the other, the paper provides empirical evidence for a controversial methodological issue. From a methodological point of view, the paper compares the two alternative decision mechanisms used for modelling car ownership: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms. A discrete choice model is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990 and 2000. The study concludes that on the basis of forecasting performance, the multinomial logit model and the ordered probit model are almost undistinguishable. As for the empirical results, it can be emphasised that income elasticity is not constant and declines as car ownership increases. Besides, households living in rural areas are less sensitive than those living in urban areas. Car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport for those living in the largest cities. The results also confirmed the existence of a generation effect, which will vanish around the year 2020, a weak life-cycle effect, and a positive effect of employment on the number of cars per household. Finally, the change in the estimated coefficients over time reflects an increase in mobility needs and, consequently, an increase in car ownership.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Matas & Josep Lluís Raymond, 2006. "Economic development and changes in car ownership patterns," Working Papers CREAP2006-01, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:xrp:wpaper:creap2006-01
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    File URL: http://www.xreap.cat/RePEc/xrp/pdf/CREAP2006-01.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.xreap.cat/RePEc/xrp/pdf/CREAP2006-01.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Di Paolo, 2012. "(Endogenous) occupational choices and job satisfaction among recent PhD recipients: evidence from Catalonia," Working Papers XREAP2012-21, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2012.
    2. Jordi Jofre-Monseny & Raquel Marín-López & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2012. "What underlies localization and urbanization economies? Evidence from the location of new firms," Working Papers 2012/9, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Teixidó-Figueras, J. & Duro, J.A., 2014. "Spatial Polarization of the Ecological Footprint Distribution," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 93-106.
    4. Ana Maria Osorio & Catalina Bolancé & Nyovane Madise & Katharina Rathmann, 2013. "Social Determinants of Child Health in Colombia: Can Community Education Moderate the Effect of Family Characteristics?," Working Papers XREAP2013-02, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Mar 2013.
    5. Teixidó-Figueras, Jordi & Duro, Juan Antonio, 2015. "The building blocks of International Ecological Footprint inequality: A Regression-Based Decomposition," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 30-39.
    6. repec:oup:jcomle:v:10:y:2014:i:1:p:107-136. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ana Maria Osorio & Catalina Bolancé & Nyovani Madise, 2012. "Intermediary and structural determinants of early childhood health in Colombia: exploring the role of communities," Working Papers XREAP2012-13, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2012.
    8. Guglielmo D’Amico & Montserrat Guillen & Raimondo Manca, 2012. "Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance," Working Papers XREAP2012-05, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Mar 2012.
    9. Joan-Ramon Borrell & Juan Luis Jiménez & Carmen García, 2014. "Evaluating Antitrust Leniency Programs," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 107-136.
    10. Manuela Alcañiz & Montserrat Guillén & Daniel Sánchez-Moscona & Miguel Santolino & Oscar Llatje & Lluís Ramon, 2013. "“Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey”," IREA Working Papers 201313, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2013.
    11. Vicente Royuela, 2012. "What about people in European Regional Science?," Working Papers XREAP2012-12, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised May 2012.
    12. Laura Fernàndez-Villadangos, 2006. "Are two-part tariffs efficient when consumers plan ahead?: An empirical study," Working Papers CREAP2006-04, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Oct 2006.
    13. Aida Solé-Auró & Manuela Alcañiz, 2014. "Are we living longer but less healthy? Trends in mortality and morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011," Working Papers XREAP2014-01, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jan 2013.
    14. Antoni Ferri & Montserrat Guillén & Lluís Bermúdez, 2012. "Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures," Working Papers XREAP2012-02, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jan 2012.
    15. Antonio Di Paolo & Ferran Mañé, 2014. "Are we wasting our talent? Overqualification and overskilling among PhD graduates," Working Papers XREAP2014-06, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2014.
    16. Eva Boj & Pedro Delicado & Josep Fortiana & Anna Esteve & Adria Caballe, 2012. "Local Distance-Based Generalized Linear Models using the dbstats package for R," Working Papers XREAP2012-11, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised May 2012.
    17. Antoni Ferri & Lluís Bermúdez & Montserrat Guillén, 2012. "How to use the standard model with own data?," Working Papers XREAP2012-03, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Feb 2012.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Car ownership; ordered probit model; multinomial logit model.;

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    1. Studies on the automobile industry

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