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A Behavioural SIR Model and its Implications for Physical Distancing

Author

Listed:
  • Baskozos, Giorgos

    (University of Oxford)

  • Galanis, Giorgos

    (Goldsmiths, University of London, UK; and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University; and CRETA, University of Warwick)

  • Di Guilmi, Corrado

    (University of Technology Sydney, Australia; and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University)

Abstract

The paper proposes a behavioural-compartmental-epidemiological model with heterogenous agents who choose whether to enact physical distancing practices. Motivated by the evidence on individual physical distancing behaviour during the COVID-19 outbreak, our model extends the standard compartmental-epidemiological models by including endogenous physical distancing behaviour, drawing on discrete choice theory. This approach can account for two important factors : (i) the limited information about the contagion dynamics available for individuals and (ii) the heterogeneity in the individual ability and preferences concerning physical distancing. Despite its simplicity, the model provides policy indications about the timing and size of mitigating policies and the level and quality of information available for the public.

Suggested Citation

  • Baskozos, Giorgos & Galanis, Giorgos & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2020. "A Behavioural SIR Model and its Implications for Physical Distancing," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 58, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wcreta:58
    as

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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/creta/papers/manage/creta58_-_giorgos_galanis.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2014. "Infectious diseases and economic growth," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-53.
    3. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
    4. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "How Deadly is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate," Staff Report 598, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    6. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, January.
    8. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Flaschel & Giorgos Galanis & Daniele Tavani & Roberto Veneziani, 2021. "Pandemics and Aggregate Demand: a Framework for Policy Analysis," Working Papers PKWP2101, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    2. Joshua S. Gans, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of R̂ = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," NBER Working Papers 27632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 50-67.
    4. Galanis, Giorgos & Kollias, Iraklis & Leventidis, Ioanis & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2022. "Generalizing Heterogeneous Dynamic Heuristic Selection," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 73, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    5. Peter Flaschel & Giorgos Galanis & Daniele Tavani & Roberto Veneziani, 2021. "Pandemics and Aggregate Demand: a Framework for Policy Analysis," Working Papers PKWP2025, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Galanis, Giorgos & Kollias, Iraklis & Leventidis, Ioanis & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2022. "Generalizing Heuristic Switching Models," Working Papers 0715, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Giorgos Galanis & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2020. "Financialisation, working conditions and contagion dynamics in developing and emerging economies," Working Papers PKWP2018, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).

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