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Stock market returns and economic activity: evidence from wavelet analysis

Author

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  • Marco Gallegati

    (Department of Economics, Università Politecnica delle Marche)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between stock market returns and economic activity by using signal decomposition techniques based on wavelet analysis. In particular, we apply the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) to the DJIA stock price index and the industrial production index for US over the period 1961:1- 2005:3 and using the definitions of wavelet variance, wavelet correlation and cross-correlations analyze the association as well as the lead/lag relationship between stock prices and industrial production at the different time scales. Our results show that stock market returns tends to lead the level of economic activity but only at the highest scales (lowest frequencies), corresponding to periods of 16 months and longer, and that the periods by which stock returns lead output increase as the wavelet time scale increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Gallegati, 2005. "Stock market returns and economic activity: evidence from wavelet analysis," Macroeconomics 0512016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0512016
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 12
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0512/0512016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 249-266.
    2. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    3. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
    4. Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Staff Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalfaoui Rabeh, K & Boutahar Mohamed, B, 2011. "A time-scale analysis of systematic risk: wavelet-based approach," MPRA Paper 31938, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market; industrial production; wavelet analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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