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Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal

Author

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  • Savvakis C. Savvides

    (The Cyprus Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper was prepared for the purpose of presenting the methodology and uses of the Monte Carlo simulation technique as applied in the evaluation of investment projects to analyse and assess risk. The first part of the paper highlights the importance of risk analysis in investment appraisal. The second part presents the various stages in the application of the risk analysis process. The third part examines the interpretation of the results generated by a risk analysis application including investment decision criteria and various measures of risk based on the expected value concept. The final part draws some conclusions regarding the usefulness and limitations of risk analysis in investment appraisal.

Suggested Citation

  • Savvakis C. Savvides, 2004. "Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal," Finance 0409020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0409020
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 33
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miranda Sarmento, J. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Public-Private Partnerships : Risk Allocation and Value for Money," Other publications TiSEM b9218010-a357-4c0a-805a-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Salci, Sener, 2017. "An Integrated Appraisal of the Péligre Electricity Transmission Line Rehabilitation Investment," MPRA Paper 78929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sener Salci & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Incorporating Risk and Uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis," Development Discussion Papers 2016-09, JDI Executive Programs.
    4. MIGARA JAYAWARDENA & Glenn Jenkins & GANGADHAR SHUKLA, 1999. "Control Of Water And Coastal Pollution An Appraisal For Espirito,Brazil," Development Discussion Papers 1999-04, JDI Executive Programs.
    5. René Guigui Gámez & Héctor Salas Harms, 2018. "Indicador financiero eficaz, para la selección de proyectos de inversión incorporando el riesgo, y su validación empírica," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 4(1), pages 20-46, December.
    6. Georgios Tziralis & Konstantinos Kirytopoulos & Athanasios Rentizelas & Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 2009. "Holistic investment assessment: optimization, risk appraisal and decision making," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 393-403.
    7. Savvides, Savvakis C., 2000. "Market Analysis and Competitiveness in Project Appraisal," MPRA Paper 9796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Helen Kavvadia & Savvakis C. Savvides, 2019. "Funding Economic Development and the Role of National Development Banks-The Case of Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 2019-09, JDI Executive Programs.
    9. Pasieczna Aleksandra Helena, 2019. "Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Calculate Value at Risk: Application to WIG20 and MWIG40," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 24(2), pages 61-75, June.
    10. Sina Atari & Yassine Bakkar & Eunice Omolola Olaniyi & Gunnar Prause, 2019. "Real options analysis of abatement investments for sulphur emission control compliance," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(3), pages 1062-1087, March.
    11. Savvakis C. Savvides, 2019. "Unproductive Debt and the Impairment of the Real Economy," Development Discussion Papers 2019-10, JDI Executive Programs.
    12. Migara S. Jayawardena & Glenn Jenkins & Mario Marchesini, "undated". "Fourth Fisheries Project In Bangladesh an Integrated Project Analysis," Development Discussion Papers 1998-08, JDI Executive Programs.
    13. Erika Meins & Daniel Sager, 2013. "Sustainability and Risk: Towards a Risk-Based Sustainability Rating for Real Estate Investments," ERES eres2013_254, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    14. Antonio Nesticò & Shuquan He & Gianluigi De Mare & Renato Benintendi & Gabriella Maselli, 2018. "The ALARP Principle in the Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Acceptability of Investment Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Glenn P. Jenkins & Chun-Yan kuo & Arnold C. Harberger, 2020. "Analyse Couts-Avantages Pour Les Decisions D’Investissement Chapitre 6:Faire Face À L'incertitude Et Au Risque Dans L'évaluation Des Investissements," Development Discussion Papers 2020-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    16. Di Lorenzo, Giuseppina & Pilidis, Pericles & Witton, John & Probert, Douglas, 2012. "Monte-Carlo simulation of investment integrity and value for power-plants with carbon-capture," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 467-478.
    17. Leslie G. Manison & Savvakis C. Savvides, 2016. "Towards Sustainable Growth: Rebuilding the Foundations of the Cyprus Economy," Development Discussion Papers 2016-07, JDI Executive Programs.
    18. Glenn Jenkins & Chun-Yan Kuo & Arnold C. Harberger, 2011. "Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions: Chapter 6 (Dealing With Uncertainty and Risk in Investment Appraisal)," Development Discussion Papers 2011-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    19. Glenn Jenkins & Tumani Dembajang, "undated". "Integrated Appraisal Of A Regional African Satellite Project," Development Discussion Papers 2005-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    20. Hossein Bastanzad & Pedram Davoudi & Hossein Tavakolian, 2018. "Foreign Exchange Rate Pricing at the Future Contract (Case of I.R. of Iran)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 253-293, Winter.
    21. Lenz, Rainer, 2008. "The Logic of Merger and Acquisition Pricing," MPRA Paper 26627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Savvakis C. Savvides, 2016. "Overcoming Private Debt: Unblocking and rebuilding the loan burdened real economy in Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 2016-08, JDI Executive Programs.
    23. René Guigui Gámez & Héctor Salas Harms, 2018. "Indicador financiero eficaz, para la selección de proyectos de inversión incorporando el riesgo, y su validación empírica," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 4(1), pages 20-46, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk Analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; Investment appraisal; Project analysis; Forecasting and simulation; Business administration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O22 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Project Analysis
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • M10 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - General

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