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Analyse Couts-Avantages Pour Les Decisions D’Investissement Chapitre 6:Faire Face À L'incertitude Et Au Risque Dans L'évaluation Des Investissements

Author

Listed:
  • Glenn P. Jenkins

    (Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus)

  • Chun-Yan kuo

    (Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada)

  • Arnold C. Harberger

    (University of California, Los Angeles, USA)

Abstract

Dans l'analyse des flux de trésorerie financiers, un ensemble de valeurs pour les variables du projet est sélectionné pour réaliser l'analyse du cas de base projeté sur la durée du projet d'investissement. Les valeurs de ces variables utilisées dans l'analyse et les résultats obtenus. à partir d'un modèle prédictif sont des valeurs uniques. En réalité, une incertitude qui fait référence à la variabilité de la valeur est toujours présente autour de chacune des valeurs futures des variables clés d'un projet tout au long de sa vie. Dans certains cas, notamment dans le domaine de l'environnement et de la santé, en raison du manque de connaissances scientifiques et de la présence d'innovations technologiques, il serait encore plus difficile de faire des projections. L'incertitude est encore aggravée par le fait que les effets du projet seraient répartis sur une longue période dans le futur. Ce chapitre montre comment passer du monde déterministe développé dans le scénario de base à un monde dynamique et probabiliste dans lequel l’incertitude et le risque de résultats prévalent afin que l’analyse puisse présenter des résultats plus objectifs et plus réalistes pour les décideurs. Il explique également comment il est possible de gérer et d'atténuer les incertitudes et les risques lors de la gestion du projet.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn P. Jenkins & Chun-Yan kuo & Arnold C. Harberger, 2020. "Analyse Couts-Avantages Pour Les Decisions D’Investissement Chapitre 6:Faire Face À L'incertitude Et Au Risque Dans L'évaluation Des Investissements," Development Discussion Papers 2020-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:dpaper:4538
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incertitude; Risque; Évaluation des Investissements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

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