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Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal

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  • Savvides, Savvakis C.

Abstract

The methodology and uses of Monte-Carlo simulation technique are presented as applied to the analysis and assessment of risk in the evaluation of investment projects. The importance of risk analysis in investment appraisal is highlighted and the stages in the process introduced. The results generated by a risk analysis application are interpreted, including the investment decision criteria and measures of risk based on the expected value concept. Conclusions are drawn regarding the usefulness and limitations of risk analysis in investment appraisal.

Suggested Citation

  • Savvides, Savvakis C., 1994. "Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal," MPRA Paper 10035, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Aug 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10035
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    Cited by:

    1. Miranda Sarmento, J. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Public-Private Partnerships : Risk Allocation and Value for Money," Discussion Paper 2014-017, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    2. Migara S. Jayawardena & Glenn Jenkins & Mario Marchesini, "undated". "Fourth Fisheries Project In Bangladesh an Integrated Project Analysis," Development Discussion Papers 1998-08, JDI Executive Programs.
    3. Salci, Sener, 2017. "An Integrated Appraisal of the Péligre Electricity Transmission Line Rehabilitation Investment," MPRA Paper 78929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sener Salci & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Incorporating Risk and Uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis," Development Discussion Papers 2016-09, JDI Executive Programs.
    5. MIGARA JAYAWARDENA & Glenn Jenkins & GANGADHAR SHUKLA, 1999. "Control Of Water And Coastal Pollution An Appraisal For Espirito,Brazil," Development Discussion Papers 1999-04, JDI Executive Programs.
    6. Erika Meins & Daniel Sager, 2013. "Sustainability and Risk: Towards a Risk-Based Sustainability Rating for Real Estate Investments," ERES eres2013_254, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    7. Leslie G. Manison & Savvakis C. Savvides, 2016. "Towards Sustainable Growth: Rebuilding the Foundations of the Cyprus Economy," Development Discussion Papers 2016-07, JDI Executive Programs.
    8. Georgios Tziralis & Konstantinos Kirytopoulos & Athanasios Rentizelas & Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 2009. "Holistic investment assessment: optimization, risk appraisal and decision making," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 393-403.
    9. Glenn Jenkins & Chun-Yan Kuo & Arnold C. Harberger, 2011. "Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions: Chapter 6 (Dealing With Uncertainty and Risk in Investment Appraisal)," Development Discussion Papers 2011-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    10. Savvides, Savvakis C., 2000. "Market Analysis and Competitiveness in Project Appraisal," MPRA Paper 9796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Glenn Jenkins & Tumani Dembajang, "undated". "Integrated Appraisal Of A Regional African Satellite Project," Development Discussion Papers 2005-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    12. Lenz, Rainer, 2008. "The Logic of Merger and Acquisition Pricing," MPRA Paper 26627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Savvakis C. Savvides, 2016. "Overcoming Private Debt: Unblocking and rebuilding the loan burdened real economy in Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 2016-08, JDI Executive Programs.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk analysis; investment appraisal; Monte Carlo simulation; project evaluation; measures of risk; investment decision criteria;

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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