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Introducing a scale of market shocks


  • Gilles O. Zumbach

    (Olsen & Associates)

  • Michel M. Dacorogna

    (Olsen & Associates)

  • Jorgen L. Olsen

    (Olsen & Associates)

  • Richard B. Olsen

    (Olsen & Associates)


Two 'event' scales for financial markets, called 'scale of market shocks' (SMS), are introduced, which measure the importance of the market movements. These indices are based on the price volatility and are computed by integrating mapped asset volatilities over time horizons that range from 1 hour to 42 days. The first SMS is an absolute scale, or universal scale, allowing values of different assets to be compared directly. The second SMS is an adaptive scale, calibrated to the typical behavior of each asset, allowing the relative importance of market movements to be assessed. In principle, the SMS can be constructed for any market: the indices are computed from the price time series. In the foreign exchange (FX) market, each index is associated with a currency pair and an index per currency and an index for the whole market are derived from it.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles O. Zumbach & Michel M. Dacorogna & Jorgen L. Olsen & Richard B. Olsen, 2004. "Introducing a scale of market shocks," Finance 0407004, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0407004
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    2. Dominique M. Guillaume & Olivier V. Pictet & Michel M. Dacorogna, "undated". "On the intra-daily performance of GARCH processes," Working Papers 1994-07-31, Olsen and Associates.
    3. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December.
    4. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    More about this item


    foreign exchange; extreme movements; volatility; financial markets; measurement;

    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics

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