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The realized equity premium has been higher than expected: further evidence

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  • Marco Taboga

    (CeRP)

Abstract

We propose a new approach to the study of stock returns. We develop a simple model to show that, in the long run, the average rate of return on the market portfolio equals the average growth rate of income plus an average payout rate measuring the quantity of financial resources distributed or absorbed by quoted firms. We exploit this framework to calculate expected returns using U.S. stock market data.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Taboga, 2002. "The realized equity premium has been higher than expected: further evidence," Finance 0210004, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0210004
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    3. John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37.
    4. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    5. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    7. Haitao Li & Yuewu Xu, 2002. "Survival Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1981-1995, October.
    8. Jeremy J. Siegel & Richard H. Thaler, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter.
    9. Peter A. Diamond, 1999. "What Stock Market Returns To Expect For The Future?," Issues in Brief ib-2, Center for Retirement Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    equity premium puzzle realized risk finance expected;

    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics

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