The Realized Equity Premium has been Higher than Expected: Further Evidence
We propose a new approach to the study of stock returns. We develop a simple model to show that, in the long run, the average rate of return on the market portfolio equals the average growth rate of income plus an average payout rate measuring the quantity of inancial resources distributed or absorbed by quoted firms. We exploit this framework to calculate expected returns using U.S. stock market data.
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- Jeremy J. Siegel & Richard H. Thaler, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter.
- Eugene Fama & F. & Kenneth R. French, .
"The Equity Premium.","
CRSP working papers
522, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- John H. Cochrane, 1997.
"Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37.
- John H Cochrane, 2003. "Where is the Market Going: Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000762, David K. Levine.
- John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Where is the Market Going? Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories," NBER Working Papers 6207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter A. Diamond, 1999. "What Stock Market Returns To Expect For The Future?," Issues in Brief ib-2, Center for Retirement Research.
- G. Constantinides, 1990.
"Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1397, David K. Levine.
- Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June.
- Haitao Li & Yuewu Xu, 2002. "Survival Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1981-1995, October.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996.
"Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April.
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