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Construction of a Cities Evolution Tree, with Applications

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  • Jinfeng Wang

    ()

  • Xuhua Liu
  • Hongyan Chen

Abstract

China has been experiencing urbanization at an unprecedented rate over the last two decades. This study analyzes the impact of urbanization on land occupation. Cities are clustered by their functions and development stages, which is illustrated by a cluster tree, a dynamic tree that depicts the evolution of cities. The evolution tree in one year is used to predict the state of a city in a future time period. Another application of the evolution tree is to predict urban-type relevant phenomena, such as urban occupation. It is found that comprehensive cities, business cities, and manufacturing cities have higher urban expansion rates than tourist cities, with a few exceptions that focus on both industry and tourism. Meanwhile, the speed and extent of city land growth are dominated by industrialization stages and economic patterns, as well as leap-development. The methodology presented in this study is especially suitable for identifying transition paths of a stochastic process in a complex dataset of 253 cities in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinfeng Wang & Xuhua Liu & Hongyan Chen, 2011. "Construction of a Cities Evolution Tree, with Applications," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1360, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa10p1360
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    File URL: http://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa10/ERSA2010finalpaper1360.pdf
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    1. Deng, Xiangzheng & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Uchida, Emi, 2008. "Growth, population and industrialization, and urban land expansion of China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 96-115, January.
    2. Richard Nelson, 2008. "Economic Development from the Perspective of Evolutionary Economic Theory," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 9-21.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    4. Matthew A. Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors On Air Pollution," Labor and Demography 0312005, EconWPA, revised 13 May 2004.
    5. Mead, Robert W. & Brajer, Victor, 2005. "Protecting China's children: valuing the health impacts of reduced air pollution in Chinese cities," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(06), pages 745-768, December.
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