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Are capital flows fickle? Increasingly ? and does the answer still depend on type?


  • Eichengreen,Barry J.
  • Gupta,Poonam - DECOS
  • Masetti,Oliver


According to conventional wisdom, capital flows are fickle. Focusing on emerging markets, this paper asks whether this conventional wisdom still holds in the contemporary world. The results show that, despite recent structural and regulatory changes, much of it survives. FDI inflows are more stable than non-FDI inflows. Within non-FDI inflows, portfolio debt and bank-intermediated flows remain the most volatile. While FDI inflows are driven mainly by pull factors, portfolio debt and equity are driven mainly by push factors; and bank-intermediated flows are driven by a combination of push and pull factors. But capital outflows from emerging markets behave differently. FDI outflows from emerging markets have grown and become significantly more volatile. There is similarly an increase in the volatility of bank-intermediated capital outflows from emerging markets. The findings underscore that outflows from emerging markets, both FDI and bank-related flows, have come to play a growing role and warrant greater attention from analysts and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen,Barry J. & Gupta,Poonam - DECOS & Masetti,Oliver, 2017. "Are capital flows fickle? Increasingly ? and does the answer still depend on type?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7972, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7972

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    1. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:03:n:s179399331750017x is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Erdal Özmen & Fatma Taşdemir, 2018. "Gross Capital Inflows And Outflows: Twins Or Distant Cousins?," ERC Working Papers 1807, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2018.
    3. Fatma Taşdemir & Erdal Özmen, 2018. "Exchange Rate Regimes As Thresholds: The Main Determinants Of Capital Inflows In Emerging Market Economies," ERC Working Papers 1810, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2018.
    4. Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2018. "Bilateral Capital Flows: Gravity, Push, and Pull," Trinity Economics Papers tep0818, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. Coletta Frenzel Baudisch, 2018. "Sectoral FDI and the Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Financial Development," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201828, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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