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Are capital flows fickle? Increasingly ? and does the answer still depend on type?


  • Eichengreen,Barry J.
  • Gupta,Poonam - DECOS
  • Masetti,Oliver


According to conventional wisdom, capital flows are fickle. Focusing on emerging markets, this paper asks whether this conventional wisdom still holds in the contemporary world. The results show that, despite recent structural and regulatory changes, much of it survives. FDI inflows are more stable than non-FDI inflows. Within non-FDI inflows, portfolio debt and bank-intermediated flows remain the most volatile. While FDI inflows are driven mainly by pull factors, portfolio debt and equity are driven mainly by push factors; and bank-intermediated flows are driven by a combination of push and pull factors. But capital outflows from emerging markets behave differently. FDI outflows from emerging markets have grown and become significantly more volatile. There is similarly an increase in the volatility of bank-intermediated capital outflows from emerging markets. The findings underscore that outflows from emerging markets, both FDI and bank-related flows, have come to play a growing role and warrant greater attention from analysts and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen,Barry J. & Gupta,Poonam - DECOS & Masetti,Oliver, 2017. "Are capital flows fickle? Increasingly ? and does the answer still depend on type?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7972, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7972

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle; Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 13/183, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Julien Acalin, 2016. "What Does Measured FDI Actually Measure?," Policy Briefs PB16-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Chalongphob Sussangkarn, 2017. "Managing Economic Stability under Volatile Capital Flows: East Asia Perspectives," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 174-192, Winter/Sp.
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    1. Sudden Stops: A Primer on Balance-of-Payments Crises
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-06-25 11:59:25


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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yihao & Chen, Fang & Huang, Jian & Shenoy, Catherine, 2019. "Hot money flows and production uncertainty: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Tae Soo Kang & Kyunghun Kim, 2019. "Push vs.  Pull Factors of Capital Flows Revisited: A Cross-country Analysis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 39-60, Winter/Sp.
    3. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
    4. Stephanie Guichard, 2017. "10 Years after the Global Financial Crisis: What Have We Learnt About International Capital Flows?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-30, October.
    5. Fatma Taşdemir & Erdal Özmen, 2018. "Exchange Rate Regimes As Thresholds: The Main Determinants Of Capital Inflows In Emerging Market Economies," ERC Working Papers 1810, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2018.
    6. Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2018. "Bilateral Capital Flows: Gravity, Push, and Pull," Trinity Economics Papers tep0818, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    7. Erdal Özmen & Fatma Taşdemir, 2019. "Globalisation And Governance: Thresholds For The Impacts Of The Main Determinants Of Capital Inflows?," ERC Working Papers 1902, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Mar 2019.
    8. Carol Bertaut & Beau Bressler & Stephanie E Curcuru, 2019. "Globalization and the geography of capital flows," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Erdal Özmen & Fatma Taşdemir, 2018. "Gross Capital Inflows And Outflows: Twins Or Distant Cousins?," ERC Working Papers 1807, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2018.
    10. Sónia Araújo & Stéphanie Guichard, 2018. "Costa Rica: Restoring fiscal sustainability and setting the basis for a more growth-friendly and inclusive fiscal policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1484, OECD Publishing.
    11. Coletta Frenzel Baudisch, 2018. "Sectoral FDI and the Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Financial Development," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201828, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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