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Micro dynamics of Turkey's export boom in the 2000s


  • Cebeci, Tolga
  • Fernandes, Ana M.


This paper examines the microeconomics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002-2011, it characterizes firm-level dynamics in the export sector and decomposes export growth at the aggregate, sector, and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover, and product turnover. The paper shows that in the short-run, aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations, and products accounts in the long run for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth. The patterns of micro-dynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net entry by Turkish-based exporters plays a more critical role for long-run growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebeci, Tolga & Fernandes, Ana M., 2013. "Micro dynamics of Turkey's export boom in the 2000s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6452, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6452

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    1. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim, 2007. "Investigation on the Determinants of Turkish Export-Boom in 2000s," MPRA Paper 5493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jaan Masso & Priit Vahter, 2011. "Exporting And Productivity: The Effects Of Multi-Market And Multi-Product Export Entry," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 83, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    3. Cebeci, Tolga & Fernandes, Ana M. & Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2012. "Exporter dynamics database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6229, The World Bank.
    4. Richard Fabling & Arthur Grimes & Lynda Sanderson, 2012. "Whatever next? Export market choices of New Zealand firms," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(1), pages 137-159, March.
    5. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    6. Caroline Freund & Martha Denisse Pierola, 2015. "Export Superstars," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1023-1032, December.
    7. Jonathan Eaton & Marcela Eslava & Maurice Kugler & James Tybout, 2008. "Export Dynamics in Colombia: Transactions Level Evidence," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004748, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and aggregate merchandise trade growth in New Zealand," Journal of International Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 182-199, June.
    9. Iacovone, Leonardo & Javorcik, Beata S., 2008. "Multi-product exporters : diversification and micro-level dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4723, The World Bank.
    10. Timoshenko, Olga A., 2015. "Product switching in a model of learning," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 233-249.
    11. Martin Andersson & Hans Lööf & Sara Johansson, 2008. "Productivity and International Trade: Firm Level Evidence from a Small Open Economy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(4), pages 774-801, December.
    12. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2010. "Export entrepreneurs : evidence from Peru," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5407, The World Bank.
    13. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2014. "The micro evolution of trade and turnover in Turkey under the global crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 397-414.
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    1. repec:esr:resser:bkmnext335 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "A survey of empirical studies using transaction level data on exports and imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 215-225, February.
    3. Aksel Erbahar, 2017. "Market Knowledge: Evidence from Importers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-012/VI, Tinbergen Institute.

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    Debt Markets; Export Competitiveness; Free Trade; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory&Research;

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