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Statistical analysis of rainfall insurance payouts in southern India

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  • Gine, Xavier
  • Townsend, Robert
  • Vickery, James

Abstract

Using 40 years of historical rainfall data, this paper estimates a distribution for payouts on rainfall insurance policies offered to farmers in the State of Andhra Pradesh, India, in 2006. The authors find that the contracts primarily protect households against extreme tail events; half the expected value of indemnities paid by the insurance are generated by only 2 percent of rainfall realizations. Contract payouts are significantly correlatedcross-sectionally, and also inversely associated with real GDP growth. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for the potential benefits of insurance to households, the risks facing a financial institution underwriting rainfall insurance contracts, and pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Gine, Xavier & Townsend, Robert & Vickery, James, 2007. "Statistical analysis of rainfall insurance payouts in southern India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4426, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4426
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    2. Mobarak, A. Mushfiq & Rosenzweig, Mark, 2012. "Selling Formal Insurance to the Informally Insured," Working Papers 97, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    3. Sommarat CHANTARAT & Kirk PANNANGPETCH & Nattapong PUTTANAPONG & Thanasin TANOMPONGHANDH, 2013. "Index-Based Risk Financing and Development of Natural Disaster Insurance Programs in Developing Asian Countries," Working Papers DP-2013-09, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    4. Shahidur R. Khandker, 2011. "Book Review: Daryl Collins, Jonathan Morduch, Stuart Rutherford, and Orlanda Ruthven. Portfolios of the Poor: How the World's Poor Live on $2 a Day. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008. Pp," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 473-481.
    5. Akter, Sonia & Brouwer, Roy & Chowdhury, Saria & Aziz, Salina, 2008. "Determinants of Participation in a Catastrophe Insurance Programme: Empirical Evidence from a Developing Country," 2008 Conference (52nd), February 5-8, 2008, Canberra, Australia 5984, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Fuchs Tarlovsky,Alan & Wolff,Hendrik, 2016. "Drought and retribution : evidence from a large-scale rainfall-indexed insurance program in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7565, The World Bank.
    7. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    8. Alan Fuchs & Hendrik Wolff, 2011. "Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 505-511.
    9. Sommarat Chantarat, 2015. "Index-based Risk Financing and Development of Natural Disaster Insurance Programs in Developing Countries," PIER Discussion Papers 10., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    10. Jacopo Bonan & Oliver Dagnelie & Philippe LeMay-Boucher & Michel Tenikue, 2012. "Is it all about Money? A Randomized Evaluation of the Impact of Insurance Literacy and Marketing Treatments on the Demand for Health Microinsurance in Senegal," Working Papers 216, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2012.
    11. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Robles, Miguel, 2011. "Flexible insurance for heterogeneous farmers: Results from a small-scale pilot in Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 1092, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. repec:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:6:p:1935-1970. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Geoffroy Enjolras & Robert Kast, 2012. "Combining participating insurance and financial policies: A new risk management instrument against natural disasters in agriculture," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 156-178, May.
    14. Shawn Cole & Xavier Giné & James Vickery, 2017. "How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1935-1970.
    15. Michler, Jeffrey D. & Viens, Frederi & Shively, Gerald, 2015. "Risk, Agricultural Production, and Weahter Index Insurance in Village South Asia," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212460, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Karlan, Dean & Morduch, Jonathan, 2010. "Access to Finance," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
    17. Michler, Jeffrey & Shively, Gerald, 2016. "Agricultural Production, Weather Variability, and Technical Change: 40 Years of Evidence from Indi," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236342, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Jean Philippe Platteau & Darwin Ugarte Ontiveros, 2013. "Understanding and Information Failures in Insurance: Evidence from India," Development Research Working Paper Series 07/2013, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    19. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion, 2013. "Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research challenges," Post-Print hal-00656778, HAL.
    20. Daniel J. Clarke, 2016. "A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 283-306, February.
    21. Bhattacharya, Haimanti & Osgood, Daniel E., 0. "Weather Index Insurance and Common Property Resources," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association.
    22. Lin, Wanchuan & Liu, Yiming & Meng, Juanjuan, 2014. "The crowding-out effect of formal insurance on informal risk sharing: An experimental study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 184-211.
    23. Chen, Huang, 2015. "Expectations, Index Qualities and Basis Risks in Explaining Farmers' Pessimism in Purchasing Weather Index Insurance," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211461, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    24. Bhattacharya, Haimanti & Osgood, Daniel E., 2014. "Weather Index Insurance and Common Property Resources," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 43(3), December.

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    Keywords

    Debt Markets; Deposit Insurance; Labor Policies; Emerging Markets;

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