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Testing genuine saving

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  • Hamilton, Kirk

Abstract

The World Bank has been publishing estimates of adjusted net or"genuine"saving since 1999. This measure of saving treats depletion of natural resources as a type of economic depreciation. Hamilton uses recent theoretical results relating growth in saving to growth in future consumption to provide a test of genuine saving using historical data. Did measured genuine saving in 1976, for example,"predict"the observed changes in consumption over subsequent decades? The author tests four alternative measures of saving econometrically. The worst measure, in terms of explained variation, is traditional net saving. Genuine saving adjusted to reflect population growth exhibits the worst fit with theory. Both gross saving and genuine saving perform better, with good concordance with theory, while genuine saving exhibits a moderate advantage in terms of goodness of fit.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamilton, Kirk, 2005. "Testing genuine saving," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3577, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3577
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 333-356, May.
    2. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    3. Ferreira, Susana & Vincent, Jeffrey R, 2005. "Genuine Savings: Leading Indicator of Sustainable Development?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 737-754, April.
    4. Kirk Hamilton & John M. Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    5. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, December.
    6. Kirk Hamilton, 2003. "Sustaining Economic Welfare: Estimating Changes in Total and Per Capita Wealth," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 419-436, September.
    7. Martin L. Weitzman, 1976. "On the Welfare Significance of National Product in a Dynamic Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(1), pages 156-162.
    8. Asheim, Geir B. & Weitzman, Martin L., 2001. "Does NNP growth indicate welfare improvement?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 233-239, November.
    9. World Bank, 2002. "World Development Indicators 2002," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13921, December.
    10. Dasgupta, Partha & Mã„Ler, Karl-Gã–Ran, 2000. "Net national product, wealth, and social well-being," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 69-93, February.
    11. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    12. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Where has all the education gone?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1581, The World Bank.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Environmental Economics > Environmental accounting

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    Cited by:

    1. Ollivier, TO, 2009. "The usefulness of aggregate sustainability indicators for policy making: What do they say for Madagascar?," MPRA Paper 16607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alan Randall, 2008. "Is Australia on a sustainability path? Interpreting the clues ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(1), pages 77-95, March.
    3. Gnègnè, Yacouba, 2009. "Adjusted net saving and welfare change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1127-1139, February.
    4. Frank Convery, 2007. "Making a difference — how environmental economists can influence the policy process — a case study of David W Pearce," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 7-32, May.
    5. Randall, Alan, 2008. "Is Australia on a sustainability path? Interpreting the clues," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(1), pages 1-19.
    6. Adrian Boos & Karin Holm‐Müller, 2012. "A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 145-159, August.
    7. Elettra Agliardi & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2011. "A New Index of Environmental Quality," Working Paper series 31_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    8. Mota, Rui Pedro & Cunha-e-Sá, Maria A., 2019. "The Role of Technological Progress in Testing Adjusted Net Savings: Evidence from OECD Countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Mota, Rui Pedro & Domingos, Tiago, 2013. "Assessment of the theory of comprehensive national accounting with data for Portugal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 188-196.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Investment&Savings; Environmental Economics&Policies; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Contractual Savings;
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