Does a thin foreign exchange market lead to destabilizing capital-market speculation in the Asian Crisis countries?
The authors investigate how the thinness of foreign-exchange markets causes destabilization speculation, especially when exchange-rate flexibility is increased, as it has been in the countries involved in the Asian crisis. They analyze the impact of this market thinness on the dynamic capital mobility and capital market risk of four countries involved in the Asian crisis: Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. Using the vector-autoregression model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition, they show that in response to one-standard-deviation shock to interest and exchange rates, the dynamic capital mobility of all four countries decreases in the short run. These shocks also cause the capital market risk of these countries to rise. Since the onset of the Asian crisis, the countries involved responded by raising their interest rates and devaluing their currencies. These measures were intended to stem capital flight from the borrowing countries and to encourage capital inflows. But in an environment of protracted financial sector reform and thin foreign exchange markets, these standard policies did not stabilize capital inflows into these countries. The authors'research supports the view that because standard policies were unable to change institutional investors'(self-fulfilling) expectations and herding behavior, the countries'policies have, in the short run, not been successful. This failure is in large part attributable to the very thin foreign exchange markets in these Asian countries.
|Date of creation:||28 Feb 1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 1997. "A multivariate GARCH model of risk premia in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-79, January.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986.
"Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1995. "An alternative approach to testing uncovered interest parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 478-481.
- Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-748, September.
- Lee Scott Redding, 1996. "Noise Traders and Herding Behavior," IMF Working Papers 96/104, International Monetary Fund.
- Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
- Hong G. Min, 1998. "Dynamic capita mobility, capital market risk, and exchange rate misalignment : evidence from seven Asian Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2025, The World Bank.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1984. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 90-107, February.
- Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1980. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," NBER Working Papers 0544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1981. "Gold monetization and gold discipline," International Finance Discussion Papers 190, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
- Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1994. "A new approach to testing ex ante purchasing power parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(9), pages 148-151.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Imad Moosa & Razzaque Bhatti, 1997. "Are Asian Markets Integrated? Evidence for Six Countries Vis-A-Vis Japan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 51-67.
- Hassapis, Christis, 1995. "Exchange Risk in the EMS: Some Evidence Based on a GARCH Model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 295-303, October.
- Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 297-321, March.
- Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2267, The World Bank.
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-359, June.
- Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- George Furstenberg, 1998. "From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration: A Review Essay," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-84, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.