The use of New York cotton futures contracts to hedge cotton price risk in developing countries
Cotton exports account for a significant share of commodity exports for some developing countries, especially in West Africa and Central Asia. In these countries, dependency on cotton for export revenues has increased in the past 20 years. These countries therefore have a high exposure to cotton price volatility. Cotton-producing developing countries and economies in transition make little use of hedging mechanisms to reduce risk from the volatility of cotton export revenues. Countries in Francophone West Africa use forward sales to hedge but only for a small share of the crop. These countries could use cotton futures and options contracts to hedge against short- to medium-term price volatility, making cotton export revenues more predictable. Cotton futures and options contracts could also make cotton-related commercial transactions more flexible. (Futures could be sold when there are no buyers in the physical market, for example.) In West Africa, futures and options could complement the existing system of forward sales. The authors examine the feasibility of using New York cotton futures and options contracts as hedging instruments. They base their analysis on a portfolio selection problem in which the hedger selects the optimal proportions of unhedged and hedged output to minimize risk. The results suggest that despite the existence of relatively high basis risk (that is, a relatively low correlation between spot and future prices), hedging reduces cotton price volatility by 30 to 70 percent. Moreover, for all varieties of cotton examined, the hedge ratio (the percentage of exports hedged) was below one. Using a hedge ratio of one (naive hedge), at times, increases rather than decreases risk. The results also show that hedging, while reducing risk, also reduces expected returns. Attitudes toward risk that is, the degree of risk aversion - determine how much of this risk-return tradeoff is acceptable. For a risk-averse agent, the main benefit of hedging lies in risk reduction rather than in the potential for increased returns.
|Date of creation:||31 Jul 1994|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Satyanarayan, Sudhakar & Thigpen, Elton & Varangis, Panos & DEC, 1993. "Hedging cotton price risk in Francophone African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1233, The World Bank.
- Larson, Donald F., 1993. "Policies for coping with price uncertainty for Mexican maize : policies for maize price variability in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1120, The World Bank.
- Rolfo, Jacques, 1980. "Optimal Hedging under Price and Quantity Uncertainty: The Case of a Cocoa Producer," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 100-116, February.
- Gemmill, Gordon, 1985. "Optimal hedging on futures markets for commodity-exporting nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 243-261, March.
- Varangis, Panos & Thigpen, Elton & Takamasa Akiyama, 1993. "Risk management prospects for Egyptian cotton," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1077, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.