One-Fifth of the World’s Population Is at High Risk of Climate-Related Hazards

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. When these events occur, they threaten lives and livelihoods. This paper estimates the global population at high risk of climate-related hazards by combining household-level vulnerability data with local exposure to four types of events: agricultural droughts in rural areas, floods, heatwaves, and cyclones. Under current climate conditions, 4.5 billion people are expected to experience these hazards at intensities exceeding hazard-specific thresholds chosen to capture the likely occurrence of systemic impacts within a lifetime. One-third of this population is considered highly vulnerable, based on seven dimensions that influence ability to cope and recover: income, education, access to finance, social protection, drinking water, electricity, and access to services and markets. Overall, one in five people globally are considered at high risk, meaning they are both likely to experience at least one of these hazards and face severely limited capacity to recover from their impacts. Although the share of the global population at high risk has nearly halved since 2010 due to decreased vulnerability, the number of people exposed has increased, and progress has been uneven across regions. This study introduces a new global population headcount indicator based on household survey data and high-resolution spatial data to monitor climate risks across countries and over time.