IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wap/wpaper/2512.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change and Unemployment Seasonality: Evidence from US Counties

Author

Listed:
  • Similan Rujiwattanapong

    (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University and Centre for Macroeconomics)

  • Masahiro Yoshida

    (Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo)

Abstract

Historically, unemployment peaks in the first and third quarters—the arrival of cold winters and hot summers. This paper attributes non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) unemployment fluctuations to temperature shocks and assesses the impact of climate change on unemployment seasonality. Combining granular daily weather across US counties with monthly unemployment rates over the period 1990-2019, we find that extreme temperature days fuel unemployment by freezing hiring and triggering layoffs and thus, insurance claims and recipients. Climate change accounts for 40% of the decline in unemployment seasonality and 13% of the moderation in fluctuations in the overall NSA unemployment rate. Accelerated future warming will propagate the unemployment seasonality through milder winters and harsher summers.

Suggested Citation

  • Similan Rujiwattanapong & Masahiro Yoshida, 2025. "Climate Change and Unemployment Seasonality: Evidence from US Counties," Working Papers 2512, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2512
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2025/05/f610eca5f3b8122b4726b60435412a9c.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    2. Qiu, Xincheng & Yoshida, Masahiro, 2024. "Climate Change and the Decline of Labor Share," IZA Discussion Papers 17485, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Marshall Burke & Felipe González & Patrick Baylis & Sam Heft-Neal & Ceren Baysan & Sanjay Basu & Solomon Hsiang, 2018. "Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 723-729, August.
    4. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2008. "How Hurricanes Affect Wages and Employment in Local Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 49-53, May.
    5. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 2019. "The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995–2015," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(2), pages 382-416, March.
    6. Cook, Nikolai & Heyes, Anthony, 2020. "Brain freeze: outdoor cold and indoor cognitive performance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Park, R. Jisung & Pankratz, Nora & Behrer, A. Patrick, 2021. "Temperature, Workplace Safety, and Labor Market Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 14560, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Till Baldenius & Nicolas Koch & Hannah Klauber & Nadja Klein, 2023. "Heat increases experienced racial segregation in the United States," Papers 2306.13772, arXiv.org.
    2. Mario Lackner & Hendrik Sonnabend, 2024. "When performance melts away: Heat causes mental errors in high-stakes competitions," Economics working papers 2024-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. García Hombrados, Jorge, 2020. "The lasting effects of natural disasters on property crime: Evidence from the 2010 Chilean earthquake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 114-154.
    4. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Kedi Liu & Ranran Wang & Inge Schrijver & Rutger Hoekstra, 2024. "Can we project well-being? Towards integral well-being projections in climate models and beyond," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    7. Gignoux, Jérémie & Menéndez, Marta, 2016. "Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 26-44.
    8. Berthélemy Michel & Bonev Petyo & Dussaux Damien & Söderberg Magnus, 2019. "Methods for strengthening a weak instrument in the case of a persistent treatment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-30, February.
    9. Francesca Cornaglia & Naomi E. Feldman & Andrew Leigh, 2014. "Crime and Mental Well-Being," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(1), pages 110-140.
    10. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Do Immigrants Cause Crime?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1318-1347, December.
    11. Louis-Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," Carleton Economic Papers 20-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 19 May 2020.
    12. Garfield O. Blake, 2015. "Using Increases in Criminal Deportees from the US to Estimate the Effect of Crime on Economic Growth and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Laws, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-18, November.
    13. repec:osf:osfxxx:s8ayp_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Steven Raphael, 2014. "The New Scarlet Letter? Negotiating the U.S. Labor Market with a Criminal Record," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number nsc.
    15. Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Jorge Tamayo, 2010. "Assessing the Link between Adolescent Fertility and Urban Crime," Borradores de Economia 6860, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Nouman Khaliq & Muhammad Shabbir & Zahira Batool, 2019. "Exploring the Influence of Unemployment on Criminal Behavior in Punjab, Pakistan," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 402-409, March.
    17. Entorf, H. & Winker, P., 2008. "Investigating the drugs-crime channel in economics of crime models: Empirical evidence from panel data of the German States," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 8-22, March.
    18. Marion Leroutier & Hélène Ollivier, 2025. "The Cost of Air Pollution for Workers and Firms," Working Papers hal-05009744, HAL.
    19. Etienne Lalé, 2019. "Search and Multiple Jobholding," Upjohn Working Papers 19-305, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    20. Hjalmarsson, Randi & Machin, Stephen & Pinotti, Paolo, 2024. "Crime and the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    21. Edward M. Shepard & Paul R. Blackely, 2010. "Economics of Crime and Drugs: Prohibition and Public Policies for Illicit Drug Control," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Haruko Noguchi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/spwasjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.