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Climate Change and Unemployment Seasonality: Evidence from US Counties

Author

Listed:
  • Similan Rujiwattanapong

    (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University and Centre for Macroeconomics)

  • Masahiro Yoshida

    (Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo)

Abstract

Historically, unemployment peaks in the first and third quarters—the arrival of cold winters and hot summers. This paper attributes non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) unemployment fluctuations to temperature shocks and assesses the impact of climate change on unemployment seasonality. Combining granular daily weather across US counties with monthly unemployment rates over the period 1990-2019, we find that extreme temperature days fuel unemployment by freezing hiring and triggering layoffs and thus, insurance claims and recipients. Climate change accounts for 40% of the decline in unemployment seasonality and 13% of the moderation in fluctuations in the overall NSA unemployment rate. Accelerated future warming will propagate the unemployment seasonality through milder winters and harsher summers.

Suggested Citation

  • Similan Rujiwattanapong & Masahiro Yoshida, 2025. "Climate Change and Unemployment Seasonality: Evidence from US Counties," Working Papers 2512, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2512
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Unemployment rate; Unemployment seasonality; Unemployment insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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