Can Social Media Predict Election Results? Evidence from New Zealand
The importance of social media for election campaigning has received a lot of attention recently. Using data from the 2011 New Zealand General Election and the size of candidates’ social media networks on Facebook and Twitter, we investigate whether social media is associated with election votes and probability of election success. Overall, our results suggest that there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of online social networks and election voting and election results. However, the size of the effect is small and it appears that social media presence will therefore only make a difference in closely contested elections.
|Date of creation:||31 May 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand, 3240|
Phone: + 64 (0)7 838 4758 (Administrator)
Fax: + 64 7 838 4331
Web page: http://cms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/departments/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vowles, Jack, 2010. "Electoral System Change, Generations, Competitiveness and Turnout in New Zealand, 1963–2005," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(04), pages 875-895, October.
- Conitzer, Vincent, 2012. "Should social network structure be taken into account in elections?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 100-102.
- Chad Kendall & Marie Rekkas, 2012. "Incumbency advantages in the Canadian Parliament," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1560-1585, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:13/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brian Silverstone)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.