The role of electric cars in Amsterdam's transport system in the year 2015: a scenario approach

Electric cars may significantly contribute to a reduction in external costs of urban transport; their introduction is however fraught with difficulties. This paper investigates by means of a scenario analysis which conditions have to be fulfilled for a successful introduction in the city of Amsterdam. First, a short introduction to Amsterdam is given, followed by an outline of the potential of and the problems inherent in the introduction of electric cars. Next, four scenarios are constructed by means of the so-called Spider-model. This model has four major policy dimensions. It is visualized by a picture which consists of four quadrants and eight axes on which important future developments are sketched on a five point scale. The four quadrants represent policy concerns about the (inter)national flanking policies, local economic developments, local spatial policies and public transport policies, respectively. Four scenarios are next constructed: ‘Prosperous Amsterdam’, ‘Sustainable Amsterdam’, ‘Pauperized Amsterdam’ and ‘Lonely Amsterdam’. These scenarios differ largely in economic developments and in the local and (inter)national focus on sustainability issues. Finally, the transport system and the potential role of the electric car in each scenario is investigated. It is concluded that flanking policies at both the (inter)national and local level as well as a positive economic development are a sine qua non for a successful introduction and adoption of the electric car. When these conditions are fulfilled, the electric car may decisively contribute to the achievement of a more environmental friendly urban transport-system.