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On the momentum of pseudostable populations

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Listed:
  • Gustav Feichtinger
  • Roland Rau
  • Andreas J. Nov?k

Abstract

In a pathbreaking paper Keyfitz (1971) calculated the demographic momentum, i .e. the amount of further population growth if an immediate reduction of fertility to bare replacement would occur. While he assumes a stable initial population, our research aims to extend it to so-called pseudostable populations where fertility declines at a constant rate while mortality remains fixed. We were able to analytically obtain interesting insights into the momentum of growth of such populations. Comparing theoretical results in a pseudostable setting with the projections according to the component method showed a fit that was un-expectedly remarkably good. A peculiar effect of pseudostability is the monotonous decline of the momentum over time. Starting from a certain fixed l evel in the remote past, the momentum converges to zero for an infinite time horizon. Interestingly enough, there is a time where there is neither a positive nor a negative momentum. To put it numerically, a remarkable asymmetry in the momentum is revealed. While an immediate fertility change may lead to a maximal increase of the population by a factor between 2 and 3, the maximal decrease runs up to 100%.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav Feichtinger & Roland Rau & Andreas J. Nov?k, 2023. "On the momentum of pseudostable populations," VID Working Papers 2301, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:2301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Goldstein, 2002. "Population momentum for gradual demographic transitions: an alternative approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 65-73, February.
    2. Nathan Keyfitz, 1971. "On the momentum of population growth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, February.
    3. Young Kim & Robert Schoen, 1996. "Populations with quadratic exponential growth," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 19-33.
    4. Nan Li & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2000. "The solution of time-dependent population models," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 311-329.
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