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The Momentum of Real Population Under Linear Fertility Transition

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  • Nan Li

Abstract

Population momentum is the ratio of a population's ultimate size after a demographic transition to its initial size before the transition. For stable population and instantaneous drop to replacement fertility, Keyfitz found a simple formula for the momentum. Although Keyfitz's formula has been extended to cover gradual demographic transitions, the stable initial population, however, is still an obstacle to approaching reality. Using the solution of the Lotka equation with time-varying vital rates and extending it to negative values of time, exact and accurate formulae for the momentum of any initial population that undergoes a linear fertility transition are expressed. Examples using the data from the United Nations indicate that the accurate formula works well for the age structures that are far from stable such as the more and less developed regions, as well as that close to stable such as the least developed region.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Li, 2006. "The Momentum of Real Population Under Linear Fertility Transition," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 105-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:105-116
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480600620035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Schoen & Stefan Jonsson, 2003. "Modeling momentum in gradual demographic," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 621-635, November.
    2. Joshua Goldstein, 2002. "Population momentum for gradual demographic transitions: an alternative approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 65-73, February.
    3. Nathan Keyfitz, 1971. "On the momentum of population growth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, February.
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