On the Impact of Spatial Momentum
Momentum, the population growth that occurs after a fall in fertility to replacement level, has long been appreciated as a factor in the future population growth of many countries. This paper argues that another aspect of growing populations - their high proportion rural - is also a source of significant growth, and refers to the additional growth attributable to geographical redistribution as spatial momentum. Using simplifying assumptions, a model for analyzing spatial momentum is developed based on population composition, rates of growth, and levels of interregional migration. Calculations are then done using (i) hypothetical populations exhibiting a range of plausible demographic behavior, and (ii) the population of Mexico, 1970. The results show that spatial momentum can have a substantial impact on ultimate population size under commonly encountered circumstances.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Martin Brockerhoff, 1999. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Projections and Predictions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(4), pages 757-778.
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- Young Kim & Robert Schoen & P. Sarma, 1991. "Momentum and the growth-free segment of a population," Demography, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 159-173, February.
- Shapiro, D. & Tambashe, B.O., 1999. "Fertility Transition in Urban and Rural Areas of Sub-Saharan Africa," Papers 9-99-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- repec:cai:popine:popu_p1986_41n3_0609 is not listed on IDEAS
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