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Toward a General Model for Populations with Changing Rates

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  • Robert Schoen

    (Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Formal demography has yet to move beyond assuming that demographic rates are constant over time, an assumption that is both unrealistic and constraining. To generalize the fixed rate stable model to the changing rate dynamic model, this paper explores the mathematical regularities that underlie the behavior of all populations. At any time, the composition of a population can be expressed in terms of current circumstances, using the rates of a "latent" stable model. Closed form solutions for the equations governing dynamic multistate models are not always possible, but are presented for certain special cases. Those solutions provide opportunities for specifying dynamic models of potentially great value, especially for analyses of cyclical and hierarchical populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Schoen, 2001. "Toward a General Model for Populations with Changing Rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(6), pages 163-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:4:y:2001:i:6
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan Keyfitz, 1971. "On the momentum of population growth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, February.
    2. Young Kim & Robert Schoen, 1996. "Populations with quadratic exponential growth," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 19-33.
    3. Robert Schoen & Young Kim, 2000. "A dynamic multistate model of robustness and frailty," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 293-304.
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1986_41n3_0609 is not listed on IDEAS
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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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