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Constant global population with demographic heterogeneity

Author

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  • Joel E. Cohen

    (Rockefeller University)

Abstract

To understand better a possible future constant global population that is demographically heterogeneous, this paper analyzes several models. Classical theory of stationary populations generally fails to apply. However, if constant global population size P(global) is the sum of all country population sizes, and if constant global annual number of births B(global) is the sum of the annual number of births of all countries, and if constant global life expectancy at birth e(global) is the population-weighted mean of the life expectancy at birth of all countries, then B(global) x e(global) always exceeds P(global) unless all countries have the same life expectancy at birth.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel E. Cohen, 2008. "Constant global population with demographic heterogeneity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(14), pages 409-436, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:18:y:2008:i:14
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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol18/14/18-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Kaldor, 1971. "A Comment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 45-46.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    average age; Cauchy-Schwarz inequality; constant population; heterogeneity; life expectancy; migration; pensions; population projection; stationary population; zero population growth;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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