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A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modelling the Underground Economy

Author

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  • Robert Draeseke

    ()

  • David E. A. Giles

    ()

Abstract

The availability of data for the size of the "Underground Economy" is important for macroeconomic policy. We use fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to construct an annual time-series for the (unobservable) New Zealand underground economy over the period 1968 to 1994. Two input variables are used - the effective tax rate and an index of the degree of regulation. The resulting underground economy time-series is compared with one previously constructed by the second author using a structural "Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes" (MIMIC) model. The two approaches each yield sensible, but somewhat different, pictures of the New Zealand underground economy over this period. The fuzzy logic approach to this measurement problem involves several subjective judgements, but our results are quite robust to these choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Draeseke & David E. A. Giles, 1999. "A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modelling the Underground Economy," Econometrics Working Papers 9909, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9909
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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    File URL: http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/assets/docs/econometrics/ewp9909.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. A. Giles, 1999. "Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 621-640.
    2. Gregory Richardson, 1998. "The structure of fuzzy preferences: Social choice implications," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 15(3), pages 359-369.
    3. Lindstrom, Tomas, 1998. "A fuzzy design of the willingness to invest in Sweden," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Patrick J. Caragata, & David E. A. Giles, 1998. "Simulating the Relationship Between the Hidden Economy and the Tax Level and Tax Mix in New Zealand," Econometrics Working Papers 9804, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    5. David Giles & Patrick Caragata, 2001. "The learning path of the hidden economy: the tax burden and tax evasion in New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1857-1867.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. António Caleiro, 2005. "How is Confidence Related to Unemployment in Europe? A fuzzy logic answer," Economics Working Papers 1_2005, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    2. David E. A. Giles & Robert Draeseke, 2001. "Econometric Modelling based on Pattern recognition via the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm," Econometrics Working Papers 0101, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    3. António Caleiro, 2003. "Subjective Versus Objective Economic Measures, A fuzzy logic exercise," Economics Working Papers 11_2003, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    underground economy; tax evasion; fuzzy logic; fuzzy sets;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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