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Interest Rate Futures: Estimation of Volatility Parameters in an Arbitrage-Free Framework

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Hedging interest rate exposures using interest rate futures contracts requires some knowledge of the volatility function of the interest rates. Use of historical data as well as interest rate options like caps and swapoptions to estimate this volatility function, have been proposed in the literature. In this paper the interest rate futures price is modelled within an arbitrage-free framework for a volatility function which includes a stochastic variable, the instantaneous spot interest rate. The resulting system is expressed in a state space form which is solved using extended Kalman filter. The technique is applied to short-term interest rate futures contracts trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange as well as on the Tokyo International Financial Futures Exchange. The residual diagnostics indicate suitability of the model and the bootstrap resampling technique is used to obtain small sample properties of the parameters of the volatility function.

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  • Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "Interest Rate Futures: Estimation of Volatility Parameters in an Arbitrage-Free Framework," Working Paper Series 55, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:55
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, 2015. "Derivative Security Pricing," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-662-45906-5, March.
    2. Shin Ichi Aihara & Arunabha Bagchi, 2010. "Identification Of Affine Term Structures From Yield Curve Data," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 259-283.
    3. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Toan Pham, 2000. "Modeling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: Theory and Evidence," Research Paper Series 41, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Gombani, Andrea & Jaschke, Stefan R. & Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., 2005. "A filtered no arbitrage model for term structures from noisy data," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 381-400, March.
    5. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy Duong To, 2002. "A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Research Paper Series 80, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1996. "Construction of Zero-Coupon Yield Curve From Coupon Bond Yield Using Australian Data," Working Paper Series 70, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Andrea Gombani & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2001. "A Filtering Approach To Pricing In Multifactor Term Structure Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 303-320.
    8. Yassine El Qalli, 2010. "Recursive Bayesian Estimation In Forward Price Models Implied By Fair Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 301-333.

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