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State-dependent Momentum in International Stock Markets


  • Dirk G Baur
  • Thomas Dimpfl

    (University of Tubingen)


We estimate quantile autoregression (QAR) models to analyze variations in the autoregressive coefficients of 55 international stock index returns and demonstrate that it is important to allow the autoregressive parameters to vary with quantiles. The empirical results identify distinctively different patterns of autoregressive coefficients in the lower, central and upper quantiles of the distribution across all countries. More specifically, the study suggests that investors follow momentum strategies in lower quantiles or "bad states". We also demonstrate that the quantile autoregression estimates can be used to test for asymmetric responses of the volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk G Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2012. "State-dependent Momentum in International Stock Markets," Working Paper Series 169, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:169

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    More about this item


    quantile autoregression (QAR); return autocorrelation; investor behaviour; momentum; underreaction; financial crisis;

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