Limits to Linear Price Behaviour: Target Zones for Futures Prices Regulated By Limits
This paper analyzes the random walk behaviour of futures prices when the exchange regulated by price limits. Using a model analogous to exchange rate target zone models, the study tests for the existence of a nonlinear S-shape relation between observed and theoretical futures prices. This phenomenon reflects the adjustment in traders' expectations even when limits are not actually hit. The approach is illustrated for five agricultural futures contracts traded at the Chicago Board of Trade. There is some evidence of nonlinearity in quiet periods. In cases of fundamental realignments, that is volatile periods, this non-liearity disappears.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 2 9514 7777
Fax: +61 2 9514 7711
Web page: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hashem Pesaran, M. & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1996.
"Limited-dependent rational expectations models with stochastic thresholds,"
Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 267-276, June.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Murcia, F.J., 1993. "Limited-Dependent Rational Expectations Models with Stochastic Thresholds," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9318, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Seung‐Ryong Yang & B. Wade Brorsen, 1995. "Price limits as an explanation of thin‐tailedness in pork bellies futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-59, 02.
- Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1988. "Limit Moves And Price Resolution: The Case Of The Treasury Bond Futures Markets," Papers 177, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
- Rose, Colin, 1995. "A statistical identity linking folded and censored distributions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1391-1403, November.
- Gregory J. Kuserk & Peter R. Locke, 1996. "Market making with price limits," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 677-696, 09.
- Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcus Miller & Paul Weller, 1991. "Currency Bands, Target Zones, and Price Flexibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 184-215, March.
- Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. " Circuit Breakers and Market Volatility: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 237-54, March.
- Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Estimation of Stock Price Variances and Serial Covariances from Discrete Observations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 291-306, September.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Samiei, H., 1991.
"An Analysis of the determination of Dutsche Mark/French Franc Exchange rate in a Discrete-Time Target-Zone Model,"
38, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1992. "An Analysis of the Determination of Deutsche Mark/French Franc Exchange Rate in a Discrete-Time Target-Zone Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 388-401, March.
- Kees G. Koedijk & Philip A. Stork & Casper G. De Vries, 1998. "An EMS target zone model in discrete time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 31-48.
- Christopher K. Ma & Ramesh P. Rao & R. Stephen Sears, 1989. "Limit moves and price resolution: The case of the treasury bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 321-335, 08.
- Kodres, Laura E & O'Brien, Daniel P, 1994. "The Existence of Pareto-Superior Price Limits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 919-32, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Duncan Ford)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.