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Limits to Linear Price Behaviour: Target Zones for Futures Prices Regulated By Limits

This paper analyzes the random walk behaviour of futures prices when the exchange regulated by price limits. Using a model analogous to exchange rate target zone models, the study tests for the existence of a nonlinear S-shape relation between observed and theoretical futures prices. This phenomenon reflects the adjustment in traders' expectations even when limits are not actually hit. The approach is illustrated for five agricultural futures contracts traded at the Chicago Board of Trade. There is some evidence of nonlinearity in quiet periods. In cases of fundamental realignments, that is volatile periods, this non-liearity disappears.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp3.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 3.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:3
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Web page: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/

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  1. Christopher K. Ma & Ramesh P. Rao & R. Stephen Sears, 1989. "Limit moves and price resolution: The case of the treasury bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 321-335, 08.
  2. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1996. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with stochastic thresholds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 267-276, June.
  3. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  4. Kodres, Laura E & O'Brien, Daniel P, 1994. "The Existence of Pareto-Superior Price Limits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 919-32, September.
  5. Pesaran, M Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1992. "An Analysis of the Determination of Deutsche Mark/French Franc Exchange Rate in a Discrete-Time Target-Zone Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 388-401, March.
  6. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
  7. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. " Circuit Breakers and Market Volatility: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 237-54, March.
  8. Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1988. "Limit Moves And Price Resolution: The Case Of The Treasury Bond Futures Markets," Papers 177, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
  9. Rose, Colin, 1995. "A statistical identity linking folded and censored distributions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1391-1403, November.
  10. Kees G. Koedijk & Philip A. Stork & Casper G. De Vries, 1998. "An EMS target zone model in discrete time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 31-48.
  11. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Estimation of Stock Price Variances and Serial Covariances from Discrete Observations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 291-306, September.
  12. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller, 1991. "Currency Bands, Target Zones, and Price Flexibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 184-215, March.
  13. Gregory J. Kuserk & Peter R. Locke, 1996. "Market making with price limits," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 677-696, 09.
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