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Time Delay and Noise Explaining Cyclical Fluctuations in Prices of Commodities

This paper suggests to model jointly time delay and random effects in economics and finance. It proposes to explain the random and often cyclical fluctuations in commodity prices as a consequence of the interplay between external noise and time delays caused by the time between initiation of production and delivery. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic delay differential equation. The typical behavior of a commodity price index under this model will be discussed. Methods for parameter estimation and the evaluation of functionals will be proposed.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp195.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 195.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:195
Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia
Phone: +61 2 9514 7777
Fax: +61 2 9514 7711
Web page: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/

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  1. Küchler, Uwe & Platen, Eckhard, 2002. "Weak discrete time approximation of stochastic differential equations with time delay," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 497-507.
  2. Mackey, Michael C., 1989. "Commodity price fluctuations: Price dependent delays and nonlinearities as explanatory factors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 497-509, August.
  3. Küchler, Uwe & Platen, Eckhard, 2000. "Strong discrete time approximation of stochastic differential equations with time delay," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 189-205.
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