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A Cost Analysis of a Minimum Pension Guarantee for the Individual Pension System in Turkey


  • Sule Sahin
  • Adem Yavuz Elveren


The returns from individual accounts in pension schemes are subject to fluctuations in capital markets. This increases income uncertainty for the beneficiary and exposes individuals to the risk of fluctuations in the economy in general, and of the stock market in particular. This fact has recently gotten considerable attention from policymakers. A minimum pension guarantee is a way to avoid this pitfall by providing a minimum annuity regardless of the actual investment performance of individual accounts. In this study, we present a cost analysis of a minimum benefit guarantee mechanism for the Individual Pension System in Turkey, a privately managed defined contribution scheme which was introduced in 2003 as a complement to the traditional pay-as-you-go system. We examine the cost estimates and the probability of guaranteed payoffs under various economic and demographic assumptions.

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  • Sule Sahin & Adem Yavuz Elveren, 2009. "A Cost Analysis of a Minimum Pension Guarantee for the Individual Pension System in Turkey," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2009_13, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2009_13

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    1. Gasparini, Leonardo & Alejo, Javier & Haimovich, Francisco & Olivieri, Sergio & Tornarolli, Leopoldo, 2007. "Poverty among the Elderly in Latin America and the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 42957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Adem Y. Elveren, 2008. "Social Security Reform in Turkey: A Critical Perspective," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 212-232, June.
    3. Mario Jametti, 2007. "Underfunding of Defined Benefit Pension Plans and Benefit Guarantee Insurance - An Overview of Theory and Empirics," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 200, McMaster University.
    4. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 1992. "On the Management of Financial Guarantees," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 21(4), Winter.
    5. Marie-Eve Lachance & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Guaranteeing Defined Contribution Pensions: The Option to Buy Back a Defined Benefit Promise," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 1-16.
    6. Smetters, Kent, 2002. "Controlling the cost of minimum benefit guarantees in public pension conversions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 9-33, March.
    7. Nielson, Norma L. & Chan, David K. W., 2007. "Private pensions and government guarantees: clues from Canada," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 45-66, March.
    8. Wilkie, A.D., 1995. "More on a Stochastic Asset Model for Actuarial Use," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(05), pages 777-964, December.
    9. Cooper, Russell W. & Ross, Thomas W., 2003. "Protecting underfunded pensions: the role of guarantee funds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 247-272, November.
    10. Marie-Eve Lachance & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2002. "Understanding Individual Account Guarantees," NBER Working Papers 9195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ahmet Tuncay Teksoz & Serdar Sayan, 2002. "Simulation of Benefits and Risks after the Planned Privatization of the Pension System in Turkey: Is the Expected Boost to Financial Markets Feasible?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 23-45, October.
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    Contribution; Individual Pension System; Pension Guarantees; Turkey;

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