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Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule

Author

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  • Marcello Basili

    ()

  • Alain Chateauneuf

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Abstract

The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts’ opinions by a multiple quantile utility model. The paper points out that the Steiner Point is the representative consensus probability. The new rule of experts’ opinions aggregation, that can be evaluated by the Shapley value in a simple way, is prudential and coherent.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2013. "Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule," Department of Economics University of Siena 676, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:676
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    File URL: http://repec.deps.unisi.it/quaderni/676.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
    2. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Extreme events and entropy: A multiple quantile utility model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00685405, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-560 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-556 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-567 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-572 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-580 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marcello Basili, 2013. "Ellsberg Rules and Keynes’s State of Long-Term Expectation: More Than an Accordance," Department of Economics University of Siena 685, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-570 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-457 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Aggregation; Steiner Point; Multiple Priors; Quantiles;

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