Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule
The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts’ opinions by a multiple quantile utility model. The paper points out that the Steiner Point is the representative consensus probability. The new rule of experts’ opinions aggregation, that can be evaluated by the Shapley value in a simple way, is prudential and coherent.
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- Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
- Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Extreme events and entropy: A multiple quantile utility model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00685405, HAL.
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