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Reaction of Swiss Term Premia to Monetary Policy Surprises

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  • Paul Soderlind

Abstract

An affine yield curve model is estimated on daily Swiss data 2002--2009. The market price of risk is modelled in terms of proxies for uncertainty, which are estimated from interest rate options. The estimated model generates innovations in the 3-month rate that are similar to external evidence of monetary policy surprises - as well as term premia that are consistent with survey data. The results indicate that a surprise increase in the policy rate gives a reasonably sized decrease (-0.25%) in term premia for longer maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Soderlind, 2009. "Reaction of Swiss Term Premia to Monetary Policy Surprises," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-33, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2009:2009-33
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Basil Guggenheim & Matthias Jüttner, 2019. "A survey-based estimation of the Swiss franc forward term premium," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-18, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    affine price of risk; interest rate caps; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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