IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/use/tkiwps/1405.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

After the Fall: Euro Area Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • N. Holinski
  • C.J.M. Kool
  • J. Piplack

Abstract

Macroeconomic adjustment in the Southern countries of the euro area after the financial crisis appears well under way as external imbalances in these countries have almost disappeared. However, in this paper, we argue the underlying strctural problems persist and recovery is fragile. Both sovereign debt and external debt are approaching sustainability thresholds and indications of substantial structural reform are insufficient yet for the Southern countries. Prospects for higher growth in the near future are dim, due to lack of economic reforms, private and public debt overhang and imposed austerity programs. Moreover, the observed adjustment is strongly asymmetric and leads to more rather than less divergence. Overall, we feel the chosen approach will prove to be unsustainable and infeasible in the near future. To defend the euro and the euro area, a new approach is urgently needed.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Holinski & C.J.M. Kool & J. Piplack, 2014. "After the Fall: Euro Area Adjustment," Working Papers 14-05, Utrecht School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:1405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/293958/14-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden Stops in the Euro Area," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
    2. Nils Holinski & Clemens J. M. Kool & Joan Muysken, 2012. "Persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area: causes and consequences," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 1-20.
    3. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2013. "EEAG Report on the European Economy 2013 - Rebalancing Europe," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 01-116, February.
    4. Holinski, N. & Kool, C.J.M. & Muysken, J., 2009. "International Portfolio Balance: Modeling the External Adjustment Process," Research Memorandum 033, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "Controversial and novel features of the Eurozone crisis as a balance of payment crisis," Department of Economics University of Siena 640, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. Georg Dettmann, 2014. "Determinants of Internal and External Imbalances within the Euro Area," Working Papers 01/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    3. Mark Mink & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Euro Area Imbalances," CESifo Working Paper Series 6291, CESifo.
    4. Mark Mink & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Euro Area Imbalances," CESifo Working Paper Series 6291, CESifo.
    5. Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Mr. Jonathan F Manning & Jesmin Rahman, 2013. "Rebalancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2013/074, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse, Robinson & Basse, Tobias, 2019. "The walking debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 382-402.
    7. Albonico, Alice & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 13-26.
    8. Hubert Gabrisch & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 558-576, May.
    9. Paolo D’Imperio & Waltraud Schelkle, 2017. "What Difference Would a Capital Markets Union Make for Risk-Sharing in the EU?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 86(2), pages 77-88.
    10. Francesco Papadia, 2014. "Operational Aspects of a Hypothetical Demise of the Euro," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(5), pages 1090-1102, September.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/78jqkj5bb48tgb9ah9a0kqhplu is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    13. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area: Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Daniel Dăianu, 2012. "EURO zone crisis and EU governance: Tackling a flawed design and inadequate policy arrangements," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 62(3), pages 295-319, September.
    15. Keita, Kady & Rabaud, Isabelle & Turcu, Camelia, 2023. "Fiscal outcomes, current account imbalances, and institutions in Europe: Exploring nonlinearities," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 121-134.
    16. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    17. Brunnermeier, Markus & De Gregorio, José & Eichengreen, Barry & El-Erian, Mohamed & Fraga, Arminio & Ito, Takatoshi & Lane, Philip R. & Pisani-Ferry, Jean & Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram & Ramos, Ma, 2012. "Banks and cross-border capital flows: challenges and regulatory responses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102439, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Real Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Competitiveness Issues in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Zorell, Nico, 2017. "Large net foreign liabilities of euro area countries," Occasional Paper Series 198, European Central Bank.
    20. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2017. "Austerity & Competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0223, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    21. Filippo Balestrieri & Mr. Suman S Basu, 2018. "An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions," IMF Working Papers 2018/205, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic imbalances; current account; competitiveness; economic integration; optimum currency area;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:1405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marina Muilwijk (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eiruunl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.