IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/use/tkiwps/0922.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous mergers: Bidder momentum and market reaction

Author

Listed:
  • G. Kling
  • U. Weitzel

Abstract

Recent empirical studies on stock misvaluation as a possible determinant of mergers are inconclusive concerning the central hypothesis that over(under)valuation is negatively (positively) associated with merger announcement returns in stock mergers, but not in cash mergers. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis. In contrast to prior research, we employ a two-stage model to account for endogenous mergers and suggest an alternative specification of misvaluation based on an asset-pricing model (bidder momentum). In the first stage, we specify panel logit models to predict U.S. mergers from 1981 to 2003 and find that bidder momentum triggers stock mergers, but not cash mergers. In a second stage, we regress cumulated abnormal returns on merger probabilities to control for the endogeneity of mergers. This reveals a lower market response for stock mergers compared to cash mergers, which we identify as market correction of misvalued acquirers.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Kling & U. Weitzel, 2009. "Endogenous mergers: Bidder momentum and market reaction," Working Papers 09-22, Utrecht School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/309576/09_22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhagat, Sanjai & Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Noah, Robert, 2005. "Do tender offers create value? New methods and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 3-60, April.
    2. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    4. Mitchell, Mark L. & Mulherin, J. Harold, 1996. "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-229, June.
    5. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 110-110.
    6. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & René M. Stulz, 2005. "Wealth Destruction on a Massive Scale? A Study of Acquiring‐Firm Returns in the Recent Merger Wave," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 757-782, April.
    7. Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1990. "Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1019-1043, September.
    8. Aydoğan Alti, 2006. "How Persistent Is the Impact of Market Timing on Capital Structure?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1681-1710, August.
    9. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
    10. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer & Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh, 2006. "Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 725-762, April.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. Zhiwu Chen & Ming Dong, 2001. "Stock Valuation and Investment Strategies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm212, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2001.
    13. Chen, Su-Jane & Jordan, Bradford D., 1993. "Some empirical tests in the arbitrage pricing theory: Macro variables vs. derived factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-89, February.
    14. Richard J. Rosen, 2006. "Merger Momentum and Investor Sentiment: The Stock Market Reaction to Merger Announcements," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 987-1017, March.
    15. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
    16. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    17. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    18. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    19. Robert A. Pari & Son-Nan Chen, 1984. "An Empirical Test Of The Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(2), pages 121-130, June.
    20. S. Viswanathan & Bin Wei, 2008. "Endogenous Events and Long-Run Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 855-888, April.
    21. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 351-351.
    22. Paul Schultz, 2003. "Pseudo Market Timing and the Long-Run Underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 483-518, April.
    23. Antonios Antoniou & Jie Guo & Dimitris Petmezas, 2008. "Merger momentum and market valuations: the UK evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1411-1423.
    24. Harford, Jarrad, 2005. "What drives merger waves?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 529-560, September.
    25. Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew & Robinson, David T. & Viswanathan, S., 2005. "Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 561-603, September.
    26. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "The Q-Theory of Mergers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 198-204, May.
    27. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    28. Matthew Rhodes-Kropf & S. Viswanathan, 2004. "Market Valuation and Merger Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2685-2718, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kose John & Ravi S. Mateti & Zhaoyun Shangguan & Gopala Vasudevan, 2013. "Does overvaluation of bidder stock drive acquisitions? The case of public and private targets," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 188-204.
    2. Jaroslav Sedláček & Zuzana Křížová & Eva Hýblová, 2011. "Development of mergers and acquisitions in the conditions of the Czech economy 2001-2010," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 337-346.
    3. Petr VALOUCH & Jaroslav SEDLÁCEK & Alois KONECNÝ, 2012. "Analysis of the Behavior Mergermarket in the Conditions the Financial Crisis," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 37-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    2. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. E. Diecidue & J. van de Ven & U. Weitzel, 2008. "Shareholders’ expectations, aspiration levels, and mergers," Working Papers 08-06, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Malmendier, Ulrike & Opp, Marcus M. & Saidi, Farzad, 2016. "Target revaluation after failed takeover attempts: Cash versus stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 92-106.
    6. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Eckbo, B. Espen, 2009. "Bidding strategies and takeover premiums: A review," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-178, February.
    8. Qingzhong Ma, 2013. "Investment banks advising takeover targets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 339-374, July.
    9. Lien Duong & Izan H. Y. Izan, 2012. "Consequences of Riding Takeover Waves: A ustralian Evidence," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 399-434, December.
    10. Sean Cleary & Ashrafee Hossain, 2020. "POSTCRISIS M&As AND THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 407-454, May.
    11. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Takeover Waves : Triggers, Performance and Motives," Discussion Paper 2005-029, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    12. Wenjing Ouyang & Samuel H. Szewczyk, 2018. "Stock price informativeness on the sensitivity of strategic M&A investment to Q," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 745-774, April.
    13. Eckbo, B. Espen & Makaew, Tanakorn & Thorburn, Karin S., 2018. "Are stock-financed takeovers opportunistic?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 443-465.
    14. Chikh, Sabrina & Filbien, Jean-Yves, 2011. "Acquisitions and CEO power: Evidence from French networks," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1221-1236.
    15. Delis, Manthos D. & Iosifidi, Maria & Kazakis, Pantelis & Ongena, Steven & Tsionas, Mike G., 2022. "Management practices and M&A success," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Simonyan, Karen, 2014. "What determines takeover premia: An empirical analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 93-125.
    17. Vermaelen, Theo & Xu, Moqi, 2014. "Acquisition finance and market timing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-91.
    18. Farida Akhtar, 2016. "The probability of a firm making a takeover bid: An empirical analysis of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 27-54, February.
    19. Gao, Ning, 2011. "The adverse selection effect of corporate cash reserve: Evidence from acquisitions solely financed by stock," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 789-808, September.
    20. Gao, Ning, 2015. "The motives of cash reserve and bidder cash reserve effects," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 73-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mergers and acquisitions; overvaluation; endogeneity; momentum;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marina Muilwijk (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eiruunl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.