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Endogenous Events and Long-Run Returns

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  • S. Viswanathan
  • Bin Wei

Abstract

We analyze event abnormal returns when returns predict events. In fixed samples, we show that the expected abnormal return is negative and becomes more negative as the holding period increases. Asymptotically, abnormal returns converge to zero provided that the process of the number of events is stationary. Nonstationarity in the process of the number of events is needed to generate a large negative bias. We present theory and simulations for the specific case of a lognormal model to characterize the magnitude of the small-sample bias. We illustrate the theory by analyzing long-term returns after initial public offerings (IPOs) and seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Viswanathan & Bin Wei, 2008. "Endogenous Events and Long-Run Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 855-888, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2008:i:2:p:855-888
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhm090
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert M. Hull & Sungkyu Kwak & Rosemary L. Walker, 2010. "Insider signaling and seasoned equity offerings," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(8), pages 703-721, July.
    2. Duchin, Ran & Schmidt, Breno, 2013. "Riding the merger wave: Uncertainty, reduced monitoring, and bad acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 69-88.
    3. Matthew Pritsker, 2006. "A fully-rational liquidity-based theory of IPO underpricing and underperformance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Gerhard Kling & Utz Weitzel, 2010. "Endogenous mergers: bidder momentum and market reaction," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 243-254.
    5. Dahlquist, Magnus & de Jong, Frank, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing: Fact or Fiction?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Abhay Abhyankar & Keng-Yu Ho & Huainan Zhao, 2005. "Long-run post-merger stock performance of UK acquiring firms: a stochastic dominance perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 679-690.
    8. Lee, Dong Wook & Park, Kyung Suh, 2009. "Does institutional activism increase shareholder wealth? Evidence from spillovers on non-target companies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 488-504, September.

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