Pseudo Market Timing: Fact or Fiction?
The average firm going public or issuing new equity has underperformed the market in the long run. Endogeneity of the number of new issues has been proposed as a potential explanation of this long-run underperformance. Under pseudo market timing of new issues, ex post measures of average abnormal returns may be negative on average despite zero ex ante abnormal returns. We show that, under reasonable stationarity assumptions on the process generating events, traditional measures of average abnormal returns are consistent, and the pseudo market timing effect is a small sample problem. In simulations of an empirical model we demonstrate that the bias is small even in moderate sample sizes. An abnormal return measure capturing a feasible investment strategy is not biased. We argue that it is unlikely that pseudo market timing is the explanation for the long-run underperformance in equity issuances.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Institute for Financial Research Drottninggatan 89, SE-113 60 Stockholm, Sweden|
Web page: http://www.sifr.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
- Mitchell, Mark L & Stafford, Erik, 2000.
"Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 287-329, July.
- Mark L. Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 1997. "Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance," CRSP working papers 453, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Jenkinson, Tim & Ljungqvist, Alexander, 2001. "Going Public: The Theory and Evidence on How Companies Raise Equity Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198295990, December.
- S. Viswanathan & Bin Wei, 2008. "Endogenous Events and Long-Run Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 855-888, April.
- Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-42, September.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.
- Jay Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002.
"A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing and Allocations,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm258, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2002.
- Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, 08.
- Jay Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," NBER Working Papers 8805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995.
"Initial public offerings: International insights,"
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
- Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A, 1986. "Patents and R and D: Is There a Lag?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 265-83, June.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982.
"Pseudo maximum lilelihood methods : applications to poisson models,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May.
- Paul A. Gompers & Josh Lerner, 2001.
"The Really Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings: The Pre-NASDAQ Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
8505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul A. Gompers & Josh Lerner, 2003. "The Really Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings: The Pre-Nasdaq Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1355-1392, 08.
- Eckbo, B Espen & Maksimovic, Vojislav & Williams, Joseph, 1990. "Consistent Estimation of Cross-Sectional Models in Event Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 343-65.
- Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
- Paul Schultz, 2003. "Pseudo Market Timing and the Long-Run Underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 483-518, 04.
- Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
- Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. " Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December.
- Roger G. Ibbotson & Jody L. Sindelar & Jay R Ritter, 1994. "The Market'S Problems With The Pricing Of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(1), pages 66-74.
- Ritter, Jay R., 2003. "Investment banking and securities issuance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 255-306 Elsevier.
- Lowry, Michelle, 2003. "Why does IPO volume fluctuate so much?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 3-40, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anki Helmer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.