IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upj/weupjo/20-321.html

State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Are Not Adequate

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher J. O'Leary

    (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

  • Kenneth J. Kline

    (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

Abstract

Regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits are paid from reserves held in state accounts at the U.S. Treasury. The Great Recession exhausted the majority of UI reserve accounts, and not all states have rebuilt reserves. We examine the adequacy of current state and systemwide UI reserves to weather a mild, moderate, or severe recession in the coming months. Our results suggest that a recession as severe as the average of those occurring since 1975 would cause 18 states to exhaust UI reserves. Our simulations account for the fact that several states have cut benefit generosity since the Great Recession ended. Results suggest that despite federal incentives for forward funding, reserves are insufficient in many states. By accepted standards, state benefit provisions are not excessive, but state-imposed constraints on financing make the system slow to recover from debt. We suggest modest actions for UI financing reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. O'Leary & Kenneth J. Kline, 2020. "State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Are Not Adequate," Upjohn Working Papers 20-321, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:20-321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1340&context=up_workingpapers
    Download Restriction: This material is copyrighted. Permission is required to reproduce any or all parts.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trine Filges & Anders Bruun Jonassen & Anne‐Marie Klint Jørgensen, 2018. "Reducing unemployment benefit duration to increase job finding rates: a systematic review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 1-194.
    2. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2012. "The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over 20 Years," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 701-752.
    3. Burt S. Barnow & Richard A. Hobbie, 2013. "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: The Role of Workforce Programs," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number arra.
    4. Christopher J. O'Leary & Stephen A. Wandner, 2018. "Unemployment Insurance Reform: Evidence-Based Policy Recommendations," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Stephen A. Wandner (ed.),Unemployment Insurance Reform: Fixing a Broken System, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    5. Johannes F. Schmieder† & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2011. "The Effects Of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over The Business Cycle: Evidence From Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    6. Carlton, Dennis W, 1983. "The Location and Employment Choices of New Firms: An Econometric Model with Discrete and Continuous Endogenous Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 440-449, August.
    7. Wayne Vroman & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2014. "Financing Unemployment Insurance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(1), pages 253-268, March.
    8. Newman, Robert J. & Sullivan, Dennis H., 1988. "Econometric analysis of business tax impacts on industrial location: What do we know, and how do we know it?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 215-234, March.
    9. Christopher J. O'Leary & Kenneth J. Kline, 2016. "Are State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Sufficient for the Next Recession?," Upjohn Working Papers 16-257, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    10. Guo, Audrey, 2020. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Taxation on Multi-Establishment Firms," MPRA Paper 97919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Audrey, 2020. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Taxation on Multi-Establishment Firms," MPRA Paper 97919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Ring, Patrick, 2021. "Labor force participation, job search effort and unemployment insurance in the laboratory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 748-778.
    3. Jessen, Jonas & Jessen, Robin & Galecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Góra, Marek & Kluve, Jochen, 2023. "The Micro and Macro Effects of Changes in the Potential Benefit Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 15978, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Røed, Knut, 2012. "Active Unemployment Insurance," IZA Policy Papers 41, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Isaak, Niklas & Jessen, Robin, 2024. "Normative judgments implicit in the tax system: A simulation approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 1128, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Cairo, Sofie & Mahlstedt, Robert, 2021. "Transparency of the Welfare System and Labor Market Outcomes of Unemployed Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 14940, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Jonas Kolsrud & Camille Landais & Peter Nilsson & Johannes Spinnewijn, 2015. "The Optimal Timing of UI Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden," CEP Discussion Papers dp1361, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Nordmeier, Daniela, 2016. "Revisiting the matching function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-374.
    9. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 182-216, May.
    10. Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2016. "The effect of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on unemployment exits to work and match quality in France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-29.
    11. Sandner, Malte, 2019. "Effects of early childhood intervention on fertility and maternal employment: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 159-181.
    12. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2016. "The Limited Macroeconomic Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions," NBER Working Papers 22163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Johannes Spinnewijn, 2020. "The Trade‐Off between Insurance and Incentives in Differentiated Unemployment Policies," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 101-127, March.
    14. François Gerard & Joana Naritomi, 2021. "Job Displacement Insurance and (the Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 899-942, March.
    15. Bruno Coquet, 2017. "Les allocations chômage devraient-elles être dégressives ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    16. François Bonnet, 2025. "Less Eligibility, Welfare, and Punishment: The Econometric Evidence," Post-Print halshs-05165960, HAL.
    17. Jonas Kolsrud & Camille Landais & Peter Nilsson & Johannes Spinnewijn, 2018. "The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 985-1033, April.
    18. Stefano Della & Jörg Heining & Johannes F Schmieder & Simon Trenkle, 2023. "Evidence on Job Search Models from a Survey of Unemployed Workers in Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(2), pages 1181-1232.
    19. Juliana MESÉN VARGAS & Bruno VAN DER LINDEN, 2017. "Is there always a trade-off between insurance and incentives? The case of unemployment with subsistence constraints," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    20. Fabienne Boudier‐Bensebaa, 2005. "Agglomeration economies and location choice: Foreign direct investment in Hungary," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 605-628, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:20-321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask the person in charge to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/upjohus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.