Predictors of Employment Growth and Unemployment in U.S. Central Cities, 1990-2010
This paper considers employment growth and unemployment from 1990-2010 in a cross-section of cities in light of practical tools that city governments have at their disposal to provide relief. In particular, I test educational attainment (both initial levels and growth over time) and public capital investment as influences on job growth and changes in unemployment rates in 83 central cities in the United States. Change in educational attainment over time is suggestive of causing higher job growth and lower unemployment. The implication is that initiatives to attract and retain college-educated professionals and investments in increasing college attainment among incumbent residents have the potential to reduce joblessness and improve social welfare. Despite some evidence that public capital outlays led to employment growth and reduced unemployment in the 1990s, the overall association between capital outlays and labor market health is weak. Intergovernmental spending as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), however, was found to have a positive effect on unemployment rates in 2009 and 2010. A relatively weak correlation between the two dependent variables used in the analysis—employment growth and unemployment rates—underscores the mitigating roles of migration and labor force participation in translating job creation into employment growth for members of the unemployed population.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 300 S. Westnedge Ave. Kalamazoo, MI 49007 USA|
Web page: http://www.upjohn.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glaeser, Edward L. & Scheinkman, JoseA. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1995.
"Economic growth in a cross-section of cities,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 117-143, August.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," NBER Working Papers 5013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glaeser, E.L. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1993. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1645, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Duffy-Deno, Kevin T. & Eberts, Randall W., 1991.
"Public infrastructure and regional economic development: A simultaneous equations approach,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 329-343, November.
- Kevin T. Duffy-Deno & Randall W. Eberts, 1989. "Public infrastructure and regional economic development: a simultaneous equations approach," Working Paper 8909, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Moretti, Enrico, 2004.
"Bidding for Industrial Plants: Does Winning a 'Million Dollar Plant' Increase Welfare?,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt5cz0h23t, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Michael Greenstone & Enrico Moretti, 2003. "Bidding for Industrial Plants: Does Winning a 'Million Dollar Plant' Increase Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 9844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-96, September.
- Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 251-82, August.
- John A. Tatom, 1991. "Public capital and private sector performance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-15.
- Aschauer, David Alan, 1989.
"Is public expenditure productive?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
- Robert Tannenwald, 1998. "Come the devolution, will states be able to respond?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 53-73.
- Jed Kolko & David Neumark, 2010.
"Do some enterprise zones create jobs?,"
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 5-38.
- J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 709-748, December.
- Alan H. Peters & Peter S. Fisher, 2002. "State Enterprise Zone Programs: Have They Worked?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number sezp, October.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Richard Voith, 1989.
"Accounting for differences in aggregate state productivity,"
90-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Carlino, Gerald A. & Voith, Richard, 1992. "Accounting for differences in aggregate state productivity," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 597-617, November.
- Randall W. Eberts & Michael S. Fogerty, 1987. "Estimating the relationship between local, public and private investment," Working Paper 8703, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Randall W. Eberts, 1986. "Estimating the contribution of urban public infrastructure to regional growth," Working Paper 8610, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:13-199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.