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Group Wage Curves

Using panel data on U.S. MSAs, this paper estimates how a typical MSA's wages of different demographic groups, and prices, are affected by overall MSA unemployment, the distribution of unemployment among different groups, and national prices and wages. MSA unemployment has strong effects on MSA wages and prices, but the distribution of unemployment among different groups has weak effects on wages and prices. Using these estimates, simulations show that targeting high-unemployment groups for unemployment reductions will not reduce wage or price inflation pressures. The estimates also show that the effects of MSA unemployment on prices and disadvantaged groups' wages are greater (in absolute value) at lower unemployment rates. As a result, simulations using these estimates suggest that national unemployment can be reduced with less inflationary pressures by targeting unemployment reductions at MSAs with high unemployment.

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File URL: http://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1080&context=up_workingpapers
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Paper provided by W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in its series Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles with number 00-63.

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Date of creation: Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:00-63
Note: Portions of this paper are incorporated into Appendix 9 of Timothy J. Bartik. 2001. Jobs for the Poor: Can labor Demand Policies Help? New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
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  1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, June.
  2. Martin Neil Baily & James Tobin, 1977. "Macroeconomic Effects of Selective Public Employment and Wage Subsidies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 511-544.
  3. Blanchard, O & Katz, L, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Working papers 96-29, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  5. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  6. Ray C. Fair, 1999. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 58-62, May.
  7. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  8. Gordon, Robert J, 1988. "The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 276-83, May.
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