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A simple model of multiple equilibria based on risk

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  • James S. Costain

Abstract

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs. Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

Suggested Citation

  • James S. Costain, 1998. "A simple model of multiple equilibria based on risk," Economics Working Papers 407, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 1999.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:407
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    Cited by:

    1. Monique C. Ebell, 2000. "Why Are Asset Returns more Volatile During Recessions? A Theoretical Examination," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1554, Econometric Society.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiple equilibria; imperfect insurance; matching; prudence; temperance; precautionary saving; portfolio choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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