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Asymmetric monetary policy tradeoffs

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Abstract

We measure the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary easing and tightening, during booms and recessions, using a novel nonlinear Proxy-SVAR approach. We find evidence of significant nonlinearities for the U.S. economy (1973:M1 - 2019:M6): stimulating economic activity during recessions is associated with minimal costs in terms of inflation, and reducing inflation during booms delivers small costs in terms of unemployment. These results can be rationalized by a simple model with downward nominal wage rigidities, which is also used to assess the validity of our empirical approach.

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  • Davide Debortoli & Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2020. "Asymmetric monetary policy tradeoffs," Economics Working Papers 1742, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1742
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    1. Mohammad Hashemi Joo & Yuka Nishikawa & Krishnan Dandapani, 2020. "Announcement effects in the cryptocurrency market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(44), pages 4794-4808, September.
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    5. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Jiahua Xu & Benjamin Livshits, 2018. "The Anatomy of a Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump Scheme," Papers 1811.10109, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
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    Cited by:

    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2024. "Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-030/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Emter, Lorenz & Setzer, Ralph & Zorell, Nico & Moura, Afonso S., 2024. "Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality," Working Paper Series 2989, European Central Bank.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Klaus-Jürgen Gern & Nils Jannsen, 2022. "Should they stay or should they go? Negative interest rate policies under review," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 885-912, October.
    4. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    5. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Yoosoon Chang & Steven N. Durlauf & Bo Hu & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility," Working Papers No 03/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K van Dijk, 2024. "Asymmetric Gradualism in US Monetary Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-074/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Van Robays, Ine & Cassinis, Maria Giulia, 2025. "Supply shocks and inflation: timely insights from financial markets," Working Paper Series 3096, European Central Bank.
    10. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Valerie Boctor & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2022. "Fiscal deficits and inflation risks: the role of fiscal and monetary policy regimes," BIS Working Papers 1028, Bank for International Settlements.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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