IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2025-70.html

Sovereign default and public debt: What role for fiscal rules?

Author

Listed:
  • Ablam Estel Apeti
  • Samuel Obeng
  • Abrams M.E. Tagem
  • Maureen Were

Abstract

Public debt has increased steadily over the years, leaving many countries at risk of debt distress and even pushing some to default. This paper analyses the impact of sovereign default on post-default debt-to-GDP ratios in 144 countries from 1980 to 2019. Applying the entropy balancing method, we provide robust evidence that sovereign defaults are associated with higher debt-to-GDP ratios. Furthermore, we find that the effect of default on debt is robust to alternative scenarios, empirical methods, and dynamic effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ablam Estel Apeti & Samuel Obeng & Abrams M.E. Tagem & Maureen Were, 2025. "Sovereign default and public debt: What role for fiscal rules?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2025-70, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2025-70-sovereign-default-public-debt.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean‐Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba, 2018. "Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(615), pages 2755-2784, November.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Combes, Jean-Louis & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Alexey Mikhaylov & Muhammad Ishaq M. Bhatti, 2025. "The link between DFA portfolio performance, AI financial management, GDP, government bonds growth and DFA trade volumes," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 339-356, February.
    3. Kruger, Wikus & Cassimon, Danny, 2025. "The currency risk challenge in African power finance: structures, politics, and emerging responses," IOB Working Papers 2025.12, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    4. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    5. Ly, Alpha, 2025. "Scaling up renewables without phasing down fossil fuels? Rethinking the role of financial globalization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Amelie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Kea BARET & Alexandru MINEA, 2019. "National Fiscal Rules Adoption and Fiscal Discipline in the European Union," Working Papers of BETA 2019-40, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Combes, Jean-Louis & Debrun, Xavier & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor & Vinturis, Cezara, 2025. "On the side effects of fiscal policy: Fiscal rules and income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA).
    8. Pawel Kowalewski, 2024. "Monetary processes in the world economy following the end of the Bretton Woods System," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(6), pages 697-730.
    9. Ablam Estel Apeti & Bao We Wal Bambe & Jean-Louis Combes, 2025. "On the macroeconomic effects of fiscal reforms: fiscal rules and public expenditure efficiency," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 19-47, October.
    10. Oscar Botero-Ramírez, 2026. "The Role of Investor Composition in Sovereign Bond Pricing: Evidence from an Emerging Market," IHEID Working Papers 02-2026, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    12. Venkatesh, Hari & Hiremath, Gourishankar S., 2025. "Currency exposure and economic growth: Friend or foe?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. López-Herrera, Carmen & Cordero, José M. & Pedraja-Chaparro, Francisco & Polo, Cristina, 2023. "Fiscal rules and their influence on public sector efficiency," MPRA Paper 119018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. E. Yu. Ablaev, 2025. "Approaches to Determining the Interaction Modes of Budgetary-Tax and Monetary Policy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 406-415, June.
    15. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Kea Baret & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "National fiscal rules and fiscal discipline in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(20), pages 2337-2359, April.
    16. Bambe, Bao-We-Wal, 2023. "Inflation targeting and private domestic investment in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Mert Onen & Hyun Song Shin & Goetz von Peter, 2023. "Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset," BIS Working Papers 1075, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Gómez, Santiago & Noy, Ilan & Strobl, Eric, 2024. "Climate Change, Hurricanes, and Sovereign Debt in the Caribbean Basin," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13351, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Grosse-Steffen, Christoph & Pagenhardt, Laura & Rieth, Malte, 2025. "Committed to flexible fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Coulibaly, Yacouba & Diallo, Askandarou Cheik, 2025. "Can fiscal rules improve banking system stability in developing countries?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.