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Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty


  • Andy Sumner
  • Christopher Hoy
  • Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez


In this paper we make estimates of the potential short-term economic impact of COVID-19 on global monetary poverty through contractions in per capita household income or consumption. Our estimates are based on three scenarios: low, medium, and high global contractions of 5, 10, and 20 per cent; we calculate the impact of each of these scenarios on the poverty headcount using the international poverty lines of US$1.90, US$3.20 and US$5.50 per day.

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  • Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-43

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    1. Ugo Gentilini & Mohamed Almenfi & Ian Orton & Pamela Dale, 2020. "Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33635, The World Bank Group.
    2. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    3. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2018. "Sectoral Productivity Growth and Poverty Reduction: National and Global Impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 429-439.
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