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Goodness-of-fit Tests for Linear and Non-linear Time Series Models

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  • Juan Carlos Escanciano

    () (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

Abstract

In this article we study a general class of goodness-of-fit tests for the conditional mean of a linear or nonlinear time series model. Among the properties of the proposed tests are that they are suitable when the conditioning set is infinite-dimensional; are consistent against a broad class of alternatives including Pitman's local alternatives converging at the parametric rate; and do not need to choose a lag order depending on the sample size or to smooth the data. It turns out that the asymptotic null distributions of the tests depend on the data generating process, so a new bootstrap procedure is proposed and theoretically justified. The proposed bootstrap tests are robust to higher order dependence, in particular to conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. A simulation study compares the finite sample performance of the proposed and competing tests and shows that our tests can play a valuable role in time series modeling. Finally, an application to an economic price series highlights the merits of our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit Tests for Linear and Non-linear Time Series Models," Faculty Working Papers 02/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0205
    as

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    File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1132757196_wp0205.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 151-185.
    2. Efstathios Paparoditis, 2000. "Spectral Density Based Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Time Series Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(1), pages 143-176.
    3. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June.
    4. Deo, Rohit S., 2000. "Spectral tests of the martingale hypothesis under conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 291-315, December.
    5. Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    6. Pena D. & Rodriguez J., 2002. "A Powerful Portmanteau Test of Lack of Fit for Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 601-610, June.
    7. Li, Qi & Hsiao, Cheng & Zinn, Joel, 2003. "Consistent specification tests for semiparametric/nonparametric models based on series estimation methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 295-325, February.
    8. Fan J. & Huang L-S., 2001. "Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Parametric Regression Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 640-652, June.
    9. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 269, Econometric Society.
    10. Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2003. "Diagnostic Checking For The Adequacy Of Nonlinear Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1065-1121, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ke Zhu, 2016. "Bootstrapping the portmanteau tests in weak auto-regressive moving average models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(2), pages 463-485, March.
    2. Wasel Shadat, 2011. "On the Nonparametric Tests of Univariate GARCH Regression Models," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1115, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Manuel Vega-Gordillo & José Luis à lvarez-Arce, 2005. "Heterogeneity In Economic Freedom: Free Clusters Or Free Countries," Faculty Working Papers 08/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Generalized cross-spectral test for nonlinear Granger causality with applications to money–output and price–volume relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 661-671.
    5. Bin Chen & Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2017. "Testing for fundamental vector moving average representations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 149-180, March.
    6. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Mayoral, Silvia, 2010. "Data-driven smooth tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 1983-1998, August.
    7. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2010. "Specification tests of parametric dynamic conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 209-221, November.
    8. Chen, Bin & Song, Zhaogang, 2013. "Testing whether the underlying continuous-time process follows a diffusion: An infinitesimal operator-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 83-107.
    9. Escanciano, J. Carlos, 2006. "A Consistent Diagnostic Test For Regression Models Using Projections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(06), pages 1030-1051, December.
    10. Domínguez, Manuel A. & Lobato, Ignacio N., 2006. "A consistent specification test for models defined by conditional moment restrictions," UC3M Working papers. Economics we064111, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. repec:wyi:journl:002120 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:journl:peer-00732534 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Pascal Lavergne & Valentin Patilea, 2011. "One for All and All for One: Regression Checks With Many Regressors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 41-52, January.
    14. repec:eee:jmvana:v:160:y:2017:i:c:p:10-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Manuel Landajo & María Presno, 2013. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(1), pages 125-147, February.
    16. Kasparis, Ioannis, 2010. "The Bierens test for certain nonstationary models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 221-230, October.
    17. Zhu, Ke & Li, Wai Keung, 2015. "A bootstrapped spectral test for adequacy in weak ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 113-130.
    18. Leucht, Anne & Neumann, Michael H. & Kreiss, Jens-Peter, 2013. "A model specification test for GARCH(1,1) processes," Working Papers 13-11, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    19. Hamidi Sahneh, Mehdi, 2015. "Are the shocks obtained from SVAR fundamental?," MPRA Paper 65126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Landajo, Manuel & Presno, María José, 2010. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," MPRA Paper 25659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Manuel Dominguez & Ignacio Lobato, 2010. "Consistent Inference in Models Defined by COnditional Moment Restrictions: an Alternative to GMM," Working Papers 1005, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    22. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2005. "On the Asymptotic Power Properties of Specification Tests for Dynamic Parametric Regressions," Faculty Working Papers 07/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    23. Javier Elizalde, 2013. "Market definition with differentiated products: a spatial competition application," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, pages 471-521.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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