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Robust Analysis of the Martingale Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Gouriéroux

    (University of Toronto and CREST)

  • Joann Jasiak

    (York University, Canada)

Abstract

The martingale hypothesis is commonly tested in various time series, including the nancial and economic data. In practice, there exists a variety of martingale processes and not all of them are nonstationary like the random walks. In particular, some martingales are stationary processes with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. These martingales display local trends and bubbles, and can feature volatility induced "mean-reversion". The aim of our paper is to develop tests of the martingale hypothesis, which are robust to the type of martingale process that generated the data, and are valid for nonstationary as well as stationary martingales.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gouriéroux & Joann Jasiak, 2016. "Robust Analysis of the Martingale Hypothesis," Working Papers 2016-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2016-18
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    Cited by:

    1. Djogbenou, Antoine & Inan, Emre & Jasiak, Joann, 2023. "Time-varying coefficient DAR model and stability measures for stablecoin prices: An application to Tether," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak & Michelle Tong, 2021. "Convolution‐based filtering and forecasting: An application to WTI crude oil prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1230-1244, November.
    3. Cerruti, Gianluca & Lombardini, Simone, 2022. "Financial bubbles as a recursive process lead by short-term strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 555-568.
    4. Maynard, Alex & Ren, Dongmeng, 2019. "The finite sample power of long-horizon predictive tests in models with financial bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 418-430.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions

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